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机构研究周报:港股是本轮牛市主战场,A股下半年或“前稳后升”
Wind万得·2025-06-15 22:30

Core Viewpoints - The Hong Kong stock market is seen as the main battleground for the current bull market, with a structural advantage in the Hang Seng Technology Index [5] - The A-share market is expected to experience a "steady first, then rise" trend in the second half of the year, driven by supportive fiscal policies [23] Geopolitical Tensions - The conflict between Iran and Israel has escalated, leading to increased risk aversion in financial markets, with a significant spike in international oil prices and gold [3] - The Middle East is crucial for global energy supply, and the ongoing conflict may disrupt logistics and increase prices for metals like zinc and copper, impacting industries such as automotive and electronics [3] Equity Markets - Cathay Securities believes that Hong Kong stocks have outperformed A-shares this year due to the scarcity of attractive assets in a weak macroeconomic environment [5] - Invesco continues to favor defensive positions in light of market uncertainties and potential volatility, with a neutral outlook on U.S. Treasuries [6] - Guohai Franklin Fund expresses optimism for the second half of the year, citing positive macroeconomic factors and a gradual recovery in the economy [8] Industry Research - Fuguo Fund highlights a strong trend of healthcare companies listing in Hong Kong, reshaping the pharmaceutical sector into a hub for biotech innovation and established pharmaceutical leaders [11] - Huashang Fund points out that the military industry is expected to showcase enhanced technological attributes and investment opportunities due to international tensions and upcoming product upgrades [13] - Xibu Lide Fund notes that resource stocks are gaining strength amid geopolitical conflicts, with a focus on gold and energy sectors [14] Macro and Fixed Income - Caitong Fund anticipates a continued oscillating pattern in the bond market due to insufficient demand and external trade uncertainties, with a stable policy environment expected [18] - Wanjia Fund indicates that declining deposit rates will enhance the appeal of dividend-paying assets, which are becoming increasingly attractive in a low-yield environment [19] - Zhongou Fund maintains a relatively optimistic outlook on the bond market, suggesting that the underlying logic for market performance remains unchanged [21] Asset Allocation - CICC's mid-year strategy report suggests that the A-share market will likely see a "steady first, then rise" pattern, with a focus on certainty in investment opportunities [23]