【银行】信用扩张走向量价平衡——2025年5月份金融数据点评（王一峰/赵晨阳）

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the May financial statistics released by the central bank, highlighting the continued weakness in credit demand and the implications for the banking sector and overall economic recovery [3][9]. Group 1: Credit and Loan Statistics - In May, new RMB loans amounted to 620 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 330 billion, with a growth rate of 7.1%, indicating insufficient effective financing demand [3][4]. - Corporate loans accounted for 86% of new loans, with an increase of 530 billion, while short-term and medium-long term loans showed contrasting trends [4]. - The weighted average interest rate for newly issued loans remained at 3.2%, indicating a stabilization in loan pricing despite previous rate cuts [5]. Group 2: Consumer and Retail Loan Trends - Residential loans in May totaled 54 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 217 billion, with both short-term and medium-long term loans reflecting weak consumer demand [6]. - Retail loan data showed some improvement compared to April, but mortgage loans continued to exhibit slight negative growth, indicating ongoing weakness in consumer credit expansion [6]. Group 3: Social Financing and Monetary Supply - New social financing in May reached 2.3 trillion, with a stable growth rate of 8.7%, maintaining the upward trend observed since the beginning of the year [7]. - M2 growth rate was 7.9%, while M1 growth rate was 2.3%, indicating a slight improvement in monetary activity, although private sector consumption and investment remained low [8]. Group 4: Banking Sector Outlook - The banking index has risen by 11.8% year-to-date, outperforming the CSI 300 index, with significant gains following the implementation of supportive financial policies [9]. - The "package" policy measures are expected to benefit the banking sector's operational fundamentals, suggesting that positive stock performance may continue [9].