大变化！“美国例外论”失效，全球资金再平衡

Core Viewpoint - The narrative of "American exceptionalism" is being challenged as global asset allocation shifts away from US assets towards other markets, driven by factors such as tariffs, stagflation, and AI industry developments [1][2][4]. Global Asset Reallocation - The transition from "American exceptionalism" to "American denialism" is seen as a potential long-term paradigm shift rather than a short-term narrative [5]. - As of June 2, 2023, major global equity markets like Germany's DAX and Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index have risen by 20.2% and 15.6% respectively, while US indices have remained flat [3]. - The US Treasury bond yields have seen a decline, with the 20-year yield at approximately 5% and the 10-year yield at about 4.5%, indicating a loss of confidence in US debt [4]. Market Performance and Predictions - The macroeconomic environment suggests that the US may be entering a phase of simultaneous declines in stocks, bonds, and currency, termed "triple kill" [3]. - The potential for a decline in the US dollar's attractiveness could lead to capital outflows, further exacerbating the situation [3]. - The impact of tariffs on the US economy is expected to manifest in the latter half of the year, increasing the risk of economic downturn and putting pressure on the dollar [6]. Investment Opportunities - Emerging markets and alternative assets like gold and cryptocurrencies are anticipated to gain traction as the narrative around US assets weakens [8][9]. - The focus on European markets is increasing, particularly in sectors like defense and infrastructure, which may benefit from geopolitical developments [10]. - The Chinese market is viewed positively, especially in the technology sector, which is expected to perform well due to lower valuations and less correlation with the US market [11].