【申万宏源策略】周度研究成果（6.9-6.15）

Group 1 - The article emphasizes that stable capital market policies provide A-shares with a "buffer" against macro disturbances, suggesting a shift in focus from macro analysis to strong sector rhythm judgment for short-term market assessment [3][9]. - It indicates that the improvement in the supply-demand structure of A-shares may be delayed, while the verification process of China's global competitiveness is also a process of optimistic expectation fermentation [3][9]. - The article highlights that Hong Kong stocks are a potential leading market in a bull market scenario, with significant liquidity improvements being a historical change [3][20]. Group 2 - The article discusses the expected global economic conditions over the next 3-6 months, indicating that the global fundamentals will still be affected by tariffs and high interest rates, with a preference for Chinese stocks and technology growth stocks [15][20]. - It mentions that the market may enter a phase where the central tendency is elevated, suggesting that the market is in the final stage before a significant upward movement [5][8]. - The article provides insights into the potential return rates for the Hang Seng Index in 2025, with various scenarios based on earnings growth and U.S. Treasury yields, indicating a high implied equity risk premium [20][21].