【申万宏源策略】全球地缘不确定性上升，“石油危机”情景预演——全球资产配置每周聚焦 (20250606-20250614)

Global Asset Price Review - Global political instability continues to rise, with significant events including U.S.-China communications and armed conflict between Israel and Iran, leading to a substantial increase in oil prices [1][6] - Brent crude oil prices surged by 12.80% this week, while gold prices increased by 3.65% [1][8] - Emerging markets outperformed developed markets, with specific performance metrics showing emerging markets at 0.60%, Hang Seng Index at 0.42%, and S&P 500 down by 0.39% [1][6] Global Fund Flows - There was a notable outflow from global money markets and developed market equities, with U.S. equity funds experiencing a significant outflow of $90.8 billion [2][13] - In contrast, U.S. fixed income funds saw an inflow of $54.2 billion, indicating a shift in investor preference [2][13] - Domestic capital outflow from China amounted to $21.46 billion, while foreign capital inflow was $5.95 billion, highlighting a trend of passive inflows and active outflows in the Chinese market [2][13][16] Global Market Risk Indicators - The S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices showed a general pullback, with a rise in the bullish sentiment among retail investors, as the bullish ratio increased to 36.67% [4] - The risk-adjusted return metrics for the A-share market remain significantly higher than those of overseas markets, with the Shanghai Composite Index's ERP at 71% [3][10] Macro Economic Observations - U.S. economic data indicates signs of stagflation, with manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMIs weakening, and the CPI showing a year-on-year growth of 2.4% [5] - The market anticipates a delay in interest rate cuts, with a 71.3% probability of a rate cut in September [5]