为啥伊朗这些年给人的感觉是越来越弱了？

Core Viewpoint - Iran's current state reflects a deep ideological conflict rather than ethnic tensions, with a significant divide between the ruling clerical class and the educated populace [1][5][16]. Group 1: Education and Ideology - Iran has experienced a rapid expansion in higher education, with enrollment rates rising from under 10% before the 1979 revolution to over 60% in recent years, surpassing male enrollment rates with female participation [2][4]. - The ruling clerical class has inadvertently fostered a large educated opposition by promoting scientific education, which contrasts with the religious education model seen in other Middle Eastern countries [2][5]. - The conflict between religious authority and scientific reasoning has intensified as the educated populace increasingly questions the legitimacy of the clerical regime [5][16]. Group 2: Economic Challenges - Iran's economy has faced severe challenges due to Western sanctions, particularly after the U.S. withdrew from the nuclear agreement in 2018, leading to a significant drop in oil exports from 2.5 million barrels per day to 1 million [9][10]. - The economic downturn has resulted in high inflation rates, with annual averages between 30% and 50% from 2014 to 2024, severely impacting the standard of living for ordinary Iranians [10][11]. - The sanctions have also crippled Iran's ability to export petrochemical products, further straining its fiscal resources and limiting government capabilities [11]. Group 3: Social Movements and Internal Dissent - A significant non-violent resistance movement has emerged among Iranian women, who oppose the regime's restrictions, particularly regarding dress codes, and are influencing younger generations [6][7]. - The rise of social media has amplified dissent, allowing for the rapid dissemination of anti-regime sentiments and challenging the authority of the clerical leadership [11][12]. - The Iranian government has had to adapt by relaxing some controls on social media, acknowledging the difficulty in managing public sentiment in the digital age [12][13]. Group 4: Geopolitical Context - Iran's geopolitical situation is precarious, facing hostility from both regional rivals and Western powers, which has led to military escalations, including airstrikes on Iranian targets by Israel [14][15]. - The internal divisions and economic struggles have made Iran vulnerable to external influences, complicating its ability to respond effectively to military threats [16].