美股下跌，港股吃饱：港股结构性重估能走多远？

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state of the U.S. stock market and the structural trends in the Hong Kong stock market, analyzing the implications of tariff revenues and inflation on economic conditions and investment opportunities [1]. Group 1: U.S. Economic Indicators - Tariff revenues have significantly increased, with May's revenue reaching $22 billion, doubling from April's $16 billion, contributing to a total federal revenue increase of $48 billion year-over-year [2][3]. - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) remained stable in May, with overall CPI and core CPI increasing by 0.08% and 0.13% respectively, leading to a year-over-year increase of only 1.6% [7][11]. - The Federal Reserve is cautious about interest rate cuts, focusing on the future impacts of immigration policies on the labor market and wages, with current job openings and private non-farm payrolls showing positive trends [11][20]. Group 2: Tariff Impact on Prices - The impact of tariffs on prices has been slow to materialize, with only specific categories like digital appliances seeing price increases, while core prices remain stable or declining [17][20]. - Future tariff negotiations could lead to an average increase of 10% in tariffs, which may improve price expectations in the U.S. [20]. Group 3: Hong Kong Market Dynamics - The Hong Kong stock market has experienced two major opportunities this year, driven by a re-evaluation of Chinese assets and an influx of liquidity due to the Hong Kong Monetary Authority's actions [22][23]. - The current low borrowing costs in Hong Kong may continue to drive asset re-evaluation, particularly in new consumption and innovative pharmaceuticals [24]. Group 4: Investment Performance - The Alpha Dolphin virtual portfolio achieved a weekly return of 1.3%, outperforming major indices, with a total absolute return of 91% since its inception [27][29]. - Key contributors to the portfolio's performance included significant gains from stocks like Pop Mart, which saw an 11.4% increase due to strong market demand for its products [31]. Group 5: Stock Contributions - The portfolio's performance was bolstered by stocks such as Pop Mart and Disney, while stocks like Alibaba and Kweichow Moutai faced declines due to external market pressures [32]. - The analysis of individual stock movements highlights the importance of market sentiment and external factors influencing stock performance [32]. Group 6: Asset Allocation - The Alpha Dolphin portfolio is currently balanced with approximately 52% in equity assets and 48% in defensive assets like gold and U.S. Treasury bonds [33].