国泰海通证券研究·2025-06-16 14:53Group 1 - The core viewpoint maintains a tactical asset allocation strategy, with a neutral stance on A-shares, a tactical underweight on US Treasuries, and a tactical overweight on gold [1][2]. - A-shares are expected to perform well due to the easing of policy uncertainties and a downward trend in risk-free interest rates, which enhances market risk appetite [1]. - The US Treasury market faces challenges due to unpredictable policies from the Trump administration, leading to higher yield requirements and a potential upward trend in real interest rates [1][2]. Group 2 - Gold is viewed as a nearly perfect hedge against various risks, especially in the context of geopolitical tensions and potential economic recession or stagflation [2]. - The recent political struggles within the US government and the complex global macro environment contribute to a favorable risk-return profile for gold [2]. - Tactical active asset allocation strategies have been implemented, with domestic and global active asset allocation portfolios showing varying degrees of excess returns [3].