国泰海通｜石化：地缘冲突升级，油价大幅上涨

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the significant rebound in oil prices due to various factors including U.S.-China trade negotiations, moderate U.S. inflation, declining oil inventories, and escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East [1][2] - On June 13, 2025, Brent and WTI crude oil futures surged over 8% due to Middle Eastern tensions, with WTI reaching a high of $74.35 per barrel and Brent hitting $75.28 per barrel, marking their highest levels since early February and early April respectively [1][2] - OPEC+ has increased oil production three times consecutively from May to July 2025, with a significant monthly increase of 410,000 barrels per day, totaling over 1.2 million barrels per day, the largest increase since 2020 [1][2] Group 2 - Non-OPEC+ countries, primarily in the Americas, are expected to provide an annual supply increase of approximately 1 million barrels per day in 2025-2026, with the U.S., Brazil, and Canada contributing significantly [2] - Global oil demand is projected to increase, with OPEC+, EIA, and IEA forecasting year-on-year growth of 1.013 million barrels per day and 980,000 barrels per day for 2025 and 2026 respectively [2] - Global oil inventories are at near five-year lows, driven by demand recovery and OPEC+ production cuts, while the U.S. is in the process of replenishing its strategic reserves, which currently stand at approximately 402 million barrels [3]