理想TOP2·2025-06-17 06:53Core Viewpoint - The company has set a delivery guidance for Q2 2025 between 123,000 and 128,000 units, with specific monthly delivery targets indicating potential challenges in meeting these expectations [1][3]. Delivery Guidance and Performance - April deliveries were 33,939 units, May deliveries were 40,856 units, and June's guidance is set between 48,205 and 53,205 units [1]. - Historical data shows that the company has only exceeded 13,000 weekly insurance registrations six times, with the highest two-week total being 28,020 units [3]. Challenges in Meeting Targets - The company may struggle to meet the lower end of the Q2 delivery guidance due to insufficient sales momentum in June, as indicated by the need for an average weekly insurance registration of 14,160 units for the remaining days of the month [2][3]. - Previous instances of not meeting quarterly guidance occurred in Q3 2022 and Q4 2024, with actual deliveries falling short of set lower limits [3]. Recent Sales Trends - The first week of June saw 8,270 insurance registrations, which is considered normal, but the second week’s 7,874 is viewed as significantly low against the monthly target [4]. - Factors contributing to the low numbers include stricter commission policies, operational changes within the sales team, and the cancellation of high-interest returns [5]. Market Dynamics - There is a notable portion of potential customers waiting for new models, which may impact current sales [5]. - The MEGA model has stabilized with weekly orders exceeding 500, which could lead to a monthly sales volume of around 3,000 units if maintained [5][6]. Future Outlook - The company aims for the MEGA model to achieve stable delivery within two weeks, which could positively influence the sales of other models like i8 and L series [6]. - For the L series to reach a monthly sales target of 50,000 units, it will require a weekly insurance registration of approximately 11,000 units in the second week [6].