外资投行展望下半年中国经济和股票市场

Core Viewpoint - The sentiment of foreign investors towards the Chinese market is improving, with a focus on the recovery of the domestic economy and the ongoing dynamics of Sino-U.S. relations [1][4]. Group 1: Structural Improvement in the Stock Market - Since the second half of 2024, the Chinese stock market has been experiencing structural improvements, driven by a rebound in ROE and the rise of new technology sectors [4]. - Domestic leading companies are demonstrating operational resilience and growth momentum through measures such as shareholder returns, stock buybacks, and moderate leverage, contributing to sustainable ROE recovery and valuation uplift [4]. - Global investors express a willingness to increase their allocation to Chinese stocks, acknowledging that their current allocation is 2.4 percentage points below the MSCI Emerging Markets benchmark, indicating potential for increased investment [4][6]. Group 2: Interest in AI and Technology - Foreign investors are increasingly interested in AI, technology-related themes, and new consumption trends, recognizing missed opportunities in China's technological advancements since 2021-2022 [6]. - Concerns about China's competitiveness in global technology have shifted, with breakthroughs in AI and advancements in electric vehicles and robotics prompting a reevaluation of investment strategies [6]. Group 3: Key Topics of Interest - The recovery of the domestic economy remains a focal point for foreign investment banks, with challenges to sustainable growth still present [9]. - Catalysts for market observation include fiscal policy timing and scale, export resilience, real estate market stabilization, and the evolution of Sino-U.S. tariffs [10][12]. - The divergence between A-shares and H-shares is of interest, attributed to differences in industry composition and the concentration of high-ROE sectors in the Hong Kong market [12]. Group 4: Investment Strategy Consensus - In the context of structural improvements in the Chinese stock market and the clear intent of foreign investors to increase allocations, a balanced approach with selective stock picking is a common consensus among institutions [15].