Halliburton(US:HAL) 贝塔投资智库·2025-06-17 04:14Core Viewpoint - The conflict between Israel and Iran has led to a rebound in international oil prices, nearly returning to levels before the April 2 "Liberation Day Tariff" announcement, but energy stocks have not strengthened in tandem, indicating that the market views this conflict as a short-term disturbance rather than a shift in the oil market's bearish fundamentals [1][2]. Group 1 - International benchmark Brent crude oil prices are currently around $73.25 per barrel, only 2% lower than before the April 2 tariff announcement [1]. - The Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLE.US) has declined by 7% since April 2, while Halliburton (HAL.US), a leading oil service company, has dropped by 10% [1]. - The market perceives the current price surge as unlikely to be sustained, reflecting a bearish sentiment towards energy stocks [2]. Group 2 - Analysts predict an oversupply of crude oil in the second half of the year, which could further depress prices, leading oil companies to reduce the number of drilling rigs [2]. - The number of active oil rigs in the U.S. has decreased by 10% over the past year, according to Baker Hughes data [2]. - Some producers may choose to remain inactive and observe price trends rather than resume drilling operations in the short term [2].