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二手结构|京沪深杭刚改中改需求“塌陷”,刚需集中度上升
克而瑞地产研究·2025-06-17 09:28

Core Viewpoint - The second-hand housing market in major cities like Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Hangzhou is expected to continue a trend of stabilization with a slight decline in the short term, as evidenced by a 10% month-on-month decrease in transactions in May 2025 compared to the new housing market which saw an increase [1][22]. Group 1: Market Trends - The transaction volume of second-hand homes has been steadily declining, with a notable 10% decrease in May 2025 across 30 key cities [1]. - The proportion of transactions in the price range of 3-6 million yuan has significantly adjusted downwards, indicating a trend of consumption downgrade among first-time and upgrading buyers [2][3]. - The low-price segment continues to see an upward trend in transaction concentration, with 34.4% of transactions in Shenzhen being for properties priced under 3 million yuan, reflecting a 1.2 percentage point increase month-on-month [3]. Group 2: Transaction Characteristics - In terms of area, the 90-120 square meter segment has seen an increase in transaction share, primarily due to its suitability for family needs, while smaller units (80 square meters and below) have experienced a decline in market share [5]. - The transaction concentration in mid-value areas is increasing, with notable growth in districts like Fengtai and Changping in Beijing, and Longgang and Longhua in Shenzhen [8][10]. Group 3: Price Adjustments - The proportion of second-hand homes with price reductions has increased in Beijing, Shenzhen, and Hangzhou, while Shanghai remains stable at a high level of 56% [12][16]. - The price reduction strategy has been particularly effective for budget-friendly properties, with over half of the transactions in affordable segments in Beijing and Shanghai reflecting price cuts [16]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The second-hand housing market is expected to face a seasonal decline, influenced by a slowdown in demand following the peak of school district purchases and a lack of new listings, especially in the luxury segment [21][22]. - The market is transitioning to a buyer's market, where buyers are increasingly considering location, amenities, and price, leading to longer transaction cycles for less desirable properties [22].