“新”供给侧改革的 “加减乘除”｜宏观经济

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the necessity of supply-side structural reforms in China to address the dual issues of structural overcapacity and insufficient supply, which arise from the lagging supply structure compared to the changing demand structure due to high-quality economic development [2][5]. Group 1: Economic Indicators and Trends - As of May this year, the Producer Price Index (PPI) has experienced negative growth for 32 months, with no immediate signs of recovery, marking a historical duration that surpasses previous economic crises [3]. - The GDP deflator has also turned negative for eight consecutive quarters, indicating a broad-based price decline that has transmitted from the supply side to the demand side [3]. - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) target was lowered from 3% to 2% in the government work report, reflecting a shift from a restrictive to a more result-oriented target [4]. Group 2: Supply-Side Reform Necessity - There is a consensus among policymakers and market investors that a new round of supply-side reforms is imperative, yet the definition of this reform remains vague among analysts [6]. - The previous supply-side reform was initiated in response to significant economic pressures and aimed at addressing structural issues, but the current context requires a more nuanced approach to reform [6][7]. Group 3: Real Estate Market Dynamics - The article highlights the urgent need to accelerate the de-inventory process in the real estate sector to prevent a potential deflationary trap, which could dampen consumption and investment [11]. - The real estate market is still in a phase of adjustment, with significant inventory levels persisting despite government efforts to stabilize the market [13][14]. - The challenges of de-inventory are compounded by the high proportion of real estate in household assets, which is significantly higher than in developed economies [15]. Group 4: Structural Overcapacity and Competition - The article discusses the issue of structural overcapacity and the phenomenon of "involution" in various industries, which has led to intensified competition and reduced profitability [18][19]. - The government is increasingly focused on addressing "involution" through regulatory measures to maintain fair competition and prevent market distortions [22][21]. Group 5: Policy Recommendations - The article suggests that the new supply-side reform should not merely replicate previous efforts but should adapt to the current economic landscape, emphasizing green transformation and technological innovation [28][29]. - It advocates for the establishment of a unified national market to eliminate local protectionism and enhance resource allocation efficiency [32][33]. - The article also highlights the importance of supporting enterprises in expanding into international markets to mitigate domestic competition pressures [34][35].