为什么一开始就「认怂」的人，最后反而赚到了钱？

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of understanding investment psychology, setting realistic expectations, and maintaining a disciplined investment strategy to achieve long-term financial growth [3][7][21]. Group 1: Understanding Investment Psychology - Investors often face cognitive gaps and emotional challenges that lead to poor decision-making in financial markets [5][12]. - Acknowledging one's limitations and adopting a humble approach to investing is crucial for long-term success [6][7]. Group 2: Setting Realistic Expectations - Long-term returns for various asset classes are outlined, with equities expected to yield 8%-10% annually, while bonds may provide 3%-5% [8]. - A diversified investment strategy can aim for a combined return of 6%-8%, with potential for 8%-12% through passive strategies like index investing [8][19]. Group 3: Risk Management and Asset Allocation - Understanding potential drawdowns is essential, with equities possibly experiencing declines of 70%-80%, while bonds may see 5% and commodities up to 30% [10]. - A diversified portfolio should consider asset classes, market distribution, and time allocation to mitigate risks and enhance returns [15][16][19]. Group 4: Strategy Implementation and Consistency - The article introduces the "雪球三分法" (Snowball Three-Factor Method) for long-term investment, focusing on asset, market, and time diversification [26]. - Consistency in following a well-defined investment strategy is critical, as emotional reactions to market fluctuations can derail long-term plans [21][23].