研客专栏 | 中东潘多拉魔盒打开？

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the escalating geopolitical risks in the Middle East due to the Israel-Iran conflict, particularly focusing on the potential impacts on oil and gas markets, as well as the infrastructure of Iran's energy sector [1]. Group 1: Israel-Iran Conflict and Energy Impact - Since June 11, the Israel-Iran conflict has intensified, with Israel conducting airstrikes on Iran, targeting not only military and nuclear facilities but also energy infrastructure [1]. - The conflict has not yet significantly impacted Iran's oil and gas exports, but there is a risk of escalation that could affect the global oil market [1]. - The market is currently assessing extreme scenarios regarding oil and gas supply disruptions until clear signs of de-escalation emerge [1]. Group 2: Iran's Oil and Gas Infrastructure - Iran holds the world's third-largest oil reserves and the second-largest natural gas reserves, with an average crude oil production of 3.314 million barrels per day and exports of 1.632 million barrels per day since 2025 [2]. - 86% of Iran's oil reserves are located in the Khuzestan basin, with the majority being light and heavy crude oil types [4]. - The main oil export port, Khark Island, has a loading capacity of 7 million barrels per day, making it critical for Iran's oil exports [5]. Group 3: Refining Capacity and Future Plans - Iran has 16 refineries with a total refining capacity of 2.41 million barrels per day, with plans to increase this capacity to 3.5 million barrels per day by 2026 [6]. - The refining output primarily consists of LPG, fuel oil, and diesel [6]. Group 4: Strategic Importance of the Strait of Hormuz - The Strait of Hormuz is a vital oil shipping route, with an estimated oil transport volume of 20.3 million barrels per day in 2024, accounting for 26.8% of global oil maritime trade [11]. - The potential for disruptions in this strait poses significant risks to global oil supply, as alternatives for oil transport are limited [13]. Group 5: Natural Gas Market Dynamics - Iran's South Pars gas field, one of the largest in the world, has faced attacks that could impact its production capacity, which is crucial for Iran's natural gas output [24]. - Despite being a major natural gas producer, Iran's market is relatively closed, with limited export capabilities primarily through pipelines to neighboring countries [25]. - The geopolitical tensions could lead to reduced domestic production and increased reliance on LNG imports for countries like Turkey, which may affect international markets [30]. Group 6: LPG Export Trends - Iran is a significant source of LPG exports in the Middle East, with projections for 2024 indicating an export volume of approximately 11.5 million tons, representing 25% of the region's total [36]. - The potential disruptions in Iran's gas fields could significantly impact its LPG production and exports, particularly to China, which is a major importer [36].