地缘&政策-外生冲击能否引领商品上台阶？

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the challenges in forming a consensus on market demand amidst concerns of weak long-term demand, particularly in the context of U.S. stagflation and deflationary pressures in the Asia-Pacific region [3]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Short-term market consensus is difficult to establish due to prevailing pessimism regarding demand, influenced by external shocks that are hard to predict [3]. - The U.S. government's proposal to significantly increase biofuel blending requirements is expected to drive up domestic demand for soybean oil, leading to a notable price increase [4][5]. Group 2: Policy Impacts - The proposed increase in biofuel blending requirements aims to boost domestic biofuel production and reduce reliance on imported raw materials, which is expected to raise soybean oil prices significantly [4]. - If the proposal is implemented, domestic soybean oil demand could rise from approximately 6 million tons per year to between 7.4 and 7.6 million tons by 2025-2027, representing an increase of about 1.5 million tons [5][6]. Group 3: Historical Context and Future Projections - Historical demand surges, such as the price increase of soybean oil from $0.30 to $0.87 per pound between 2022 and 2023, suggest that current trends could push prices towards $0.60 per pound [7]. - The anticipated increase in soybean crushing demand could elevate U.S. soybean crushing levels to 2.7 billion bushels, improving the soybean balance sheet and supporting higher soybean prices [7]. Group 4: Geopolitical Considerations - The article highlights the potential for geopolitical conflicts to impact commodity prices, with historical examples showing significant price increases during crises [9][11]. - The ongoing geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East, could lead to sustained high prices for commodities if supply chains are disrupted [10][15]. Group 5: Long-term Outlook - The long-term trajectory of commodity prices will depend on the evolution of geopolitical conflicts and their impact on supply chains, with a focus on whether these conflicts will lead to a permanent increase in prices [17]. - The interplay between geopolitical risks and overall demand will be crucial in determining the stability of commodity prices in the future [17].