调研报告 | 黑龙江大豆玉米市场调研

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state and future outlook of corn and soybean production in China, particularly focusing on the supply changes and market price trends due to trade disruptions and local agricultural conditions [2]. Research Background - The article emphasizes the need to understand the supply changes of corn and soybeans during their growing season, as they are staple crops in China. It highlights the importance of assessing planting areas, cost changes, and inventory levels among traders and processing enterprises to predict future market prices [2]. Survey Overview - A survey was conducted in Heilongjiang Province involving over 17 participants from various sectors, including spot trading and private equity, to gather insights on the planting and growth conditions of corn and soybeans [5]. Key Findings from the Survey - The processing capacity of a major soybean processing enterprise is 1,000 tons per day, with an annual processing volume of approximately 300,000 tons. The yield from one unit of soybeans is about 80%-80.5% soybean meal and 16%-16.5% soybean oil, with a loss of 3%-4% due to impurities [7]. - Current soybean prices are around 4,100 CNY per ton, with expectations that prices will remain stable in the third quarter. The planting area for soybeans is expected to increase slightly due to supportive policies, despite low profitability [8][10]. - In the Suifenhe area, the average yield for soybeans last year was 360-370 jin per mu, while corn was 1,600-1,700 jin per mu. This year, planting costs have decreased due to lower land rents, with a significant drop in rental prices observed [9]. Market Outlook - The processing enterprise anticipates that soybean prices will fluctuate around 4,100 CNY per ton in the third quarter, with cautious operational plans due to uncertain demand [8]. - The expected opening price for new season soybeans is around 2.05 CNY per jin, but demand may not be sufficient to sustain high prices [10]. - The survey indicates that corn prices may rise due to supply tightening, while soybean prices may follow a high-open, low-close trend similar to last year [10]. Regional Insights - In the Beidahuang area, the planting area for soybeans remains stable, with a focus on high-protein varieties. The average yield for soybeans is reported at 450 jin per mu, with corn yields at 1,800 jin per mu [14][15]. - The planting area for soybeans has increased by 10% in some regions, while corn has decreased by 10%. The overall planting conditions are favorable, with expectations of good yields if weather conditions improve [25][27]. Conclusion - The article concludes that while there are uncertainties regarding soybean prices due to high planting areas and low demand, corn prices are expected to rise due to reduced planting areas and tight inventories. The opening prices for new season soybeans are projected to be around 1.8-1.9 CNY per jin, while corn may reach 0.8-0.85 CNY per jin [27].