【笔记20250617— 茅台跌破2000，债牛接力前行】

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the strategy of "buying rumors and selling news," suggesting that investors should trust their expectations when they arise and act accordingly, while being skeptical when actual news is released [1]. Group 1: Market Conditions - The current funding environment is balanced and slightly loose, with long-term bond yields experiencing a slight decline [2]. - The central bank conducted a 197.3 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation, with a total of 183.3 billion yuan net withdrawal due to maturing reverse repos and MLF [2]. - The overnight funding rates are slightly down, with DR001 around 1.37% and DR007 around 1.52% [2]. Group 2: Bond Market Dynamics - The bond market showed cautious sentiment in the morning, with the 10-year government bond yield opening at 1.64% and peaking at 1.6475% before fluctuating down to around 1.634% [4]. - The market is influenced by rumors of the resumption of government bond trading and the inclusion of short-term government bonds in reserve requirements [4]. - The bond futures market has shown signs of recovery after a period of stagnation, indicating a shift in investor sentiment [5]. Group 3: Price Movements - The second-hand housing prices have returned to levels seen in early 2017, indicating a significant market adjustment [5]. - The price of a bottle of 25-year Flying Moutai has dropped to 1960 yuan, marking the first time it has fallen below the 2000 yuan psychological barrier since 2021 [5].