傅里叶的猫·2025-06-17 15:30Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley's recent report provides a detailed analysis of TSMC, highlighting its current challenges and forecasts for 2nm capacity and wafer pricing [1][2]. Group 1: Stock Performance and Market Comparison - TSMC's stock price has increased by 31% over the past three months, outperforming Taiwan's weighted index (TAIEX) which rose by 27% [2]. - In comparison, NVIDIA's stock surged by 53% during the same period, with currency pressures, particularly the appreciation of the New Taiwan Dollar (TWD) against the US Dollar (USD), contributing to TSMC's relative underperformance [2]. Group 2: Financial Forecast Adjustments - The appreciation of TWD by 8.1% has negatively impacted TSMC's gross margin by over 3%, leading to a downward revision of its gross margin expectations for 2025 from 58-59% to 55-56% [2]. - EPS forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been reduced by 6% and 12%, respectively, due to the adverse effects of exchange rates [2]. Group 3: AI Semiconductor Market Position - TSMC holds a dominant position in the AI semiconductor market, with projected revenue growth from cloud AI semiconductor business at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 40% over the next five years [3]. - By 2027, revenue from cloud AI is expected to account for 34% of TSMC's total revenue, up from 13% in 2024 and 25% in 2025 [3]. Group 4: Strategic Partnerships and Production Capacity - Intel's decision to outsource the production of its NovaLake CPU and GPU chips to TSMC using 2nm technology reflects high industry recognition of TSMC's advanced manufacturing capabilities [6]. - TSMC is poised to capture a share of the AI GPU market in mainland China, particularly if NVIDIA secures export licenses for its B30 chips, with a potential demand of 500,000 units [6]. Group 5: Industry Trends and Pricing Strategy - The semiconductor industry's inventory levels are declining, indicating a potential recovery in non-AI semiconductor demand [7]. - TSMC plans to increase wafer prices by 3-5% globally in 2026, with potential increases exceeding 10% at its US facilities, which may help mitigate gross margin pressures from currency appreciation [7]. Group 6: Capital Expenditure and Production Plans - TSMC plans to maintain a capital expenditure level of $40 billion in 2026, primarily to expand 2nm capacity to 90,000 wafers per month [9]. - The investment strategy reflects a balance between meeting future market demand and maintaining financial discipline, contrasting with the high volatility of capital expenditure cycles in the semiconductor industry [9]. Group 7: Key Issues Impacting Investor Confidence - Four key issues will significantly influence investor confidence in TSMC by 2026: growth in AI semiconductor business, uncertainty regarding Intel's outsourcing scale, the total addressable market for AI GPUs in mainland China, and TSMC's wafer pricing strategy [11][12]. - Successful implementation of a 3-5% price increase globally will be crucial for TSMC to offset rising costs and currency impacts [12]. Group 8: Geopolitical Risk Management - TSMC's $165 billion investment in the US enhances its ability to address geopolitical risks, particularly concerning semiconductor tariffs [15]. - If TSMC can secure exemptions for equipment and chemical imports, it may maintain a long-term gross margin above 53%, which is vital for its profitability [15].