国泰海通｜稀土观点合集

Core Viewpoint - Since 2024, rare earth prices have gradually bottomed out, with domestic quota allocations slowing down, and overseas development expectations for rare earths fermenting, although actual progress may fall short of expectations. Demand from sectors such as electric vehicles, home appliances, and wind power remains stable, while humanoid robots present long-term upside potential. The supply-demand reversal is beginning to unfold, and with Trump's tariff policies exceeding market expectations, rare earths, as a strategic domestic commodity, are likely to experience a double boost in profitability and valuation [1][5][12]. Group 1: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The implementation of export controls on medium and heavy rare earths by China has led to a significant increase in overseas prices, creating a mismatch in supply and demand [3][4]. - As of mid-May 2025, the price of terbium oxide increased from $906/kg in early April to $1005/kg, marking an 11% rise, with the price gap between overseas and domestic markets widening significantly [4]. - Domestic rare earth quotas are expected to grow at a slower rate of 6% in 2024, down from over 20% in previous years, indicating a tightening supply environment [12][26]. Group 2: Policy and Strategic Implications - The U.S. rare earth producer MP Materials announced a halt in shipments to China, which is expected to lead to a temporary contraction in domestic supply and potentially drive up prices [7][8]. - China's export control measures cover a wide range of medium and heavy rare earth products, which may exacerbate the supply-demand mismatch and trigger downstream stockpiling [11][12]. - The introduction of stricter management regulations for rare earth mining and processing is likely to enhance the strategic positioning of the industry and may lead to the exit of smaller players, further tightening supply [15][16]. Group 3: Investment Recommendations - With the recent issuance of export licenses, the rising prices abroad are expected to gradually transmit to the domestic market, benefiting rare earth magnet material companies through improved performance and valuation [5][12]. - The demand for rare earth materials is projected to maintain growth rates of 37% for electric vehicles and 19% for air conditioning in 2025, indicating a robust demand outlook [5][21]. - The rare earth sector is anticipated to experience a significant recovery, with core companies likely to benefit from the upward price trend and improved market conditions [24][28].