【交通运输】中东地缘冲突升级，看好油运景气回升——交通运输行业周报42期（20250609-20250615）（赵乃迪/王礼沫）

Core Viewpoint - The escalation of geopolitical risks in the Middle East, particularly the conflict between Israel and Iran, has led to a significant increase in VLCC (Very Large Crude Carrier) freight rates, indicating potential opportunities in the oil transportation sector [2][3]. Geopolitical Risks and Oil Transportation - The recent military actions between Israel and Iran have heightened geopolitical risks, particularly affecting oil transportation routes. Approximately 11% of global maritime trade passes through the Strait of Hormuz, which includes 34% of maritime oil exports. Any closure of this strait by Iran could severely disrupt global oil trade [3]. - The conflict has also raised the likelihood of increased sanctions on Iranian oil production and sales, which could lead to a surge in compliant oil transportation demand. In early 2025, Iran's oil production was around 3.3 million barrels per day, with exports at approximately 1.5 million barrels per day, accounting for 4% of global maritime oil exports [3]. Market Performance - Over the past five trading days, the Shanghai Composite Index decreased by 0.25%, while the Shenzhen Component Index fell by 0.60%. The transportation sector showed a slight increase of 0.05%, ranking 13th among all sectors. The sub-sectors of express delivery, shipping, and ports experienced gains, while public transport, airports, and airlines faced declines [4].