中金 | “科特估”专题（2）：格局重构和产业浪潮下的科创投资

Group 1: Core Views - The report discusses the new cycle of valuation for China's technology innovation sector, driven by macroeconomic changes, industry trends, and market dynamics, particularly in the context of AI development and global trade restructuring [1][4][6]. Group 2: Market Trends - Since the beginning of the year, the technology innovation sector has shown structural opportunities, with the Tech 50 Index rising approximately 18% from its January high, particularly in AI, robotics, and semiconductors [2][17]. - The AI sector has demonstrated a spillover effect, positively impacting related fields such as innovative pharmaceuticals and defense industries [2][17]. - The market has exhibited rotation characteristics, with different sectors leading at various times, such as AI and robotics in early months and innovative pharmaceuticals gaining momentum in mid-year [2][18]. Group 3: Driving Factors - Continuous policy support for technology innovation has been observed, including financing support and capital market reforms, with a focus on AI and other frontier technologies [3][22][24]. - The DeepSeek technology has redefined the narrative around technology innovation, enhancing China's position in the global tech landscape and potentially boosting GDP growth through AI advancements [4][28][34]. - Tariff impacts on technology companies are expected to be limited, with a trend towards domestic substitution and international expansion [5][31][32]. Group 4: Industry Trends - The AI sector is entering a new phase of commercialization, with significant advancements in model performance and application across various industries [9][10]. - High-end manufacturing is experiencing marginal improvements in supply-demand dynamics, with increased capital expenditures in sectors like batteries and consumer electronics [10]. - The innovative pharmaceutical sector is benefiting from policy optimization and international recognition, with a notable increase in overseas licensing deals [11][12]. Group 5: Market Dynamics - The valuation of technology innovation companies has room for improvement, with a notable increase in investor interest and trading activity in the sector [12][13]. - The correlation between A-shares and the RMB exchange rate suggests that a favorable currency environment could enhance the performance of Chinese stocks [35][36].