中金 | 光学系列：手机光学升级重启，龙头厂商动能不减

Core Viewpoint - The mobile optical industry is expected to recover from its low point in 2023, with a market size projected to reach approximately $26 billion in 2023 and $38.2 billion by 2026, driven by technological upgrades and increased market capacity [1][11]. Group 1: Technological Upgrades - The mobile optical industry is entering a phase of accelerated technological penetration, with advancements such as large-area CIS, glass-plastic hybrid lenses, periscope structures, and variable apertures [2]. - The proportion of large-area CIS is expected to continue increasing, with flagship models adopting one-inch CIS, which will enhance module value and entry barriers [2]. - The adoption of periscope telephoto lenses is projected to rise significantly, with penetration rates for Apple and domestic Android devices expected to reach 50% and 11% respectively by 2026, creating a potential $2 billion incremental space for Apple alone [2][11]. - Innovations such as variable apertures and continuous zoom lenses are nearing widespread application, enhancing the overall imaging capabilities of mobile devices [2][40]. Group 2: Competitive Landscape - The mobile optical market is anticipated to grow by 21%, 15%, and 7% in 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, reaching $38.2 billion by 2026, driven by product upgrades and a recovery in profit margins [3][11]. - The competitive landscape is shifting towards a more rational environment, with improved profitability expected due to reduced price competition and a focus on high-end products [3][54]. - Domestic leading manufacturers are likely to experience a stronger recovery in profitability compared to the industry average, benefiting from higher-value products and enhanced competitive advantages [3][56]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The mobile optical industry experienced a downturn from 2021 to 2023 due to weak terminal demand and intensified competition, leading to a decline in revenue and gross margins [5]. - The market is showing signs of recovery in 2024, with a moderate rebound in demand and a stabilization in the average number of cameras per device [10]. - The global smartphone lens shipment is expected to grow by 4% in 2024, with a continued upward trend projected for 2025 and 2026 [10][11].