华尔街见闻·2025-06-18 10:05Core Viewpoint - The upcoming Federal Reserve meeting is expected to focus on a potentially "hawkish" dot plot, which may reshape investor expectations regarding interest rate cuts in 2025 [1][3]. Summary by Sections Interest Rate Decision - The Federal Reserve is anticipated to maintain interest rates in the range of 4.25%-4.50%, with a consensus among economists supporting this view [2][3]. Dot Plot Expectations - The dot plot is expected to show a significant adjustment, with a shift from two rate cuts in 2025 to possibly only one, reflecting a stronger hawkish sentiment among analysts [3][5][6]. - Bank of America predicts a 25 basis point increase in the median of the dot plot, indicating only one rate cut this year, while also suggesting a potential 75 basis point cut in 2026 [6]. Economic Projections - The economic projections (SEP) are likely to reflect a "stagflation" scenario, with upward revisions to inflation forecasts and downward adjustments to growth and unemployment rates [4][9]. - GDP growth is expected to be revised down from 1.7% to 1.4%, while the unemployment rate is projected to rise slightly to 4.5% [10][13]. Inflation Forecasts - Core PCE inflation forecasts are set to be significantly raised, with estimates from various institutions indicating an increase from 2.8% to around 3.2%-3.3% for 2025 [11][12]. - Despite the upward revision in inflation forecasts, many analysts believe the Fed will view tariff-related inflation as a "one-time" shock, allowing for future policy adjustments [14]. Tariff Impact - The effective tariff rate is expected to rise by 14 percentage points, which could negatively impact consumer spending and business investment, leading to a reduction in GDP growth by nearly 1 percentage point [15][16]. Market Reactions - The dollar's response to a potentially hawkish Fed may be complex, as structural selling pressures could limit any significant rebound despite hawkish signals [20][21][22].