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天弘基金解析创新药狂飙真相:是泡沫狂欢,还是星辰大海?
和讯·2025-06-18 10:23

Core Viewpoint - The innovative drug sector has experienced a significant surge in the capital market, with the CSI Innovative Drug Industry Index rising by 21.99% and the CSI Hong Kong-Shenzhen Innovative Drug Industry Index increasing by 41.51% as of June 13 [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The current surge in the innovative drug market began with the "924" policy window last year, which established a "policy bottom" for A-shares [2] - The turning point for the innovative drug sector occurred in March this year, driven by three main factors: strong earnings reports from innovative drug and CXO companies, the undervaluation of Chinese innovative drug firms compared to international peers, and the comparative advantage of the pharmaceutical sector in A-shares [3] - The optimization of the industry structure and the reversal of the fundamental situation are key reasons for the return of funds to the pharmaceutical sector [4] Group 2: Industry Outlook - The current valuation of the innovative drug sector is around the 40th percentile historically, indicating it is relatively inexpensive [6] - The innovative drug sector has transitioned from a speculative phase to a stage focused on research and development, with a significant increase in the share of Chinese innovative drugs in global transactions [6] - The CXO sector is expected to continue its growth due to strong ties with innovative drug companies and increasing demand for CXO services [8] Group 3: Investment Strategies - The complexity of accurately valuing innovative drug companies makes it challenging for investors, as it requires estimating future revenues from existing drugs and assessing the value of drugs in various clinical stages [9] - Investors interested in the innovative drug sector are encouraged to consider ETFs or index funds as a practical way to navigate the high research barriers [10] - Personal investors should focus on risk matching, valuation changes, and long-term planning to effectively manage their investment in the innovative drug sector [12][13]