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Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, particularly the Israel-Iran conflict, on international oil and gold prices, highlighting the potential for price fluctuations due to supply concerns and market sentiment [1][2]. Oil Market Analysis - Since the onset of the Israel-Iran conflict on June 13, international oil prices have risen, with Brent crude oil prices increasing by over 9% [2]. - Concerns regarding oil supply stem from Iran's current production of approximately 3.4 million barrels per day and an export volume of about 1.5 million barrels per day, predominantly to China [2]. - The potential for conflict escalation raises fears of Iran blocking the Strait of Hormuz, through which approximately 20 million barrels of oil are transported daily, accounting for 75% of oil transport in the region [2]. - Despite these concerns, the global oil supply situation remains manageable, with OPEC in a production increase cycle and an estimated 4-5 million barrels per day of idle capacity available [2][3]. - Long-term projections suggest that international oil prices may stabilize around $65 per barrel, influenced by inflationary pressures in the U.S. and geopolitical dynamics [3][4]. Gold Market Analysis - International gold prices have surged due to the heightened tensions in the Middle East, currently hovering around $3,400 per ounce [5]. - Over the past month, gold prices have rebounded from below $3,200 per ounce, with a potential challenge to the previous high of $3,500 per ounce [5]. - The increase in gold prices is attributed to rising risk aversion amid geopolitical instability and a declining U.S. dollar index, which enhances the valuation of dollar-denominated gold [5]. - Long-term trends indicate that gold prices are influenced by the global monetary system, central bank policies, and inflation expectations, with potential for prices to reach $3,700-$3,800 per ounce if they surpass the $3,500 mark [6].