【广发宏观贺骁束】6月经济初窥

Core Viewpoint - The automotive and home appliance sectors remain key highlights of the economy under the "Two New" policy benefits, with steady growth in retail sales of passenger vehicles and significant increases in new energy vehicle sales [1][7][8]. Automotive Sector - From June 1 to June 15, retail sales of passenger vehicles increased by 20% year-on-year, compared to 13% in the previous month. Wholesale sales rose by 24% year-on-year, up from 14% [1][7]. - New energy vehicle sales during the same period reached 402,000 units, marking a 38% year-on-year increase, with a penetration rate of 57% [1][7]. Home Appliance Sector - The three major home appliances (air conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines) maintained high sales growth, particularly in the first week of June, although growth slowed in the second week. Online sales from June 2 to June 8 showed year-on-year increases of 80.0% for air conditioners, 5.7% for refrigerators, and 42.6% for washing machines [8][9]. - In the subsequent week, online sales growth for these appliances dropped significantly, with air conditioners at 12.5%, refrigerators at -14.5%, and washing machines at 9.7% [8][9]. Industrial Sector - Container throughput growth has slowed, with domestic ports reporting a 0.6% year-on-year decline in cargo throughput from June 2 to June 15, while container throughput saw a slight increase of 0.7% [2][9]. - The industrial sector's operating rates and electricity consumption reflect seasonal characteristics, with steel and coking industries showing lower operating rates compared to May [3][11]. Real Estate Market - New home sales have shown signs of weakening, with the average daily transaction area in 30 major cities dropping by 7.6% year-on-year in mid-June [5][18]. - However, the second-hand housing market remains relatively active, with a 14.8% year-on-year increase in intermediary purchases across 84 cities [5][18]. Price Trends - Industrial product prices have seen a slight month-on-month recovery, particularly in non-ferrous metals, while consumer goods show mixed trends [19][20]. - The average wholesale price of pork has decreased by 2.0% month-on-month, indicating fluctuations in food prices [20].