中金：美联储还需等待什么？

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve decided to maintain the benchmark interest rate at 4.25% to 4.5%, aligning with market expectations, while signaling two potential rate cuts within the year [1][2][4]. Summary by Sections Federal Reserve Meeting Outcomes - The updated "dot plot" indicates two expected rate cuts for the year, with a range of 3.75% to 4% [1][4]. - The Fed's statement emphasized a reduction in uncertainty but acknowledged that it remains high [2][8]. Economic Data and Predictions - The Fed adjusted its economic forecasts, lowering the 2025 GDP growth rate from 1.7% to 1.4% and raising the PCE inflation forecast from 2.7% to 3.0% [8][9]. - The unemployment rate forecast was slightly increased from 4.4% to 4.5%, reflecting ongoing inflation concerns amid tariff uncertainties [8][11]. Future Policy Path - The Fed is expected to wait for further developments in tariff negotiations before making any policy changes, with potential actions more likely in the fourth quarter [11][19]. - Current actual interest rates are higher than natural rates, suggesting a need for rate cuts, but the Fed is cautious due to tariff uncertainties [16][19]. Asset Implications - The U.S. economy shows signs of recovery, and if tax cuts and rate cuts materialize, it could lead to a rebound in U.S. assets [22][24]. - The S&P 500 index is projected to stabilize around 6000 to 6200 points, with potential volatility in the third quarter due to ongoing tariff negotiations [26][27]. Market Expectations - Market expectations for rate cuts are more aggressive than the Fed's projections, indicating a potential for trading opportunities in various asset classes [24][26]. - The dollar is expected to remain weak in the short term but may recover slightly in the fourth quarter [29].