“新美联储通讯社”：鲍威尔在说“我们不知道，所以我们等”

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the uncertainty surrounding tariff policies and the Federal Reserve's cautious stance in response to the complex economic environment, highlighting the potential impacts on inflation and employment [1][5][10]. Economic Signals and Federal Reserve's Position - The Federal Reserve is trying to understand the implications of the tariff policies announced by Trump on April 2, with concerns about inflation resurgence and potential risks to the job market [2][4]. - Despite showing confidence in the Fed's ability to respond to economic changes, Powell admitted uncertainty about future developments [3][4]. - Economic data since April has been inconsistent, presenting a challenge for the Fed, which is adopting a wait-and-see approach until more clarity emerges [6][7]. Internal Disagreements and Interest Rate Decisions - There is a noticeable division within the Federal Reserve regarding whether to cut interest rates this year, with 10 out of 19 FOMC members expecting at least two rate cuts, while the number of officials opposing any cuts has increased from 4 to 7 [8]. - Powell's ambiguous statements reflect a "data-driven" approach, indicating that without clear signs of economic weakness, rate cuts may not be considered [8][9]. Political Pressures and Independence - The Federal Reserve faces political pressure, particularly from Trump, who has criticized Powell and called for significant rate cuts [11][12]. - Some investors warn that large rate cuts without clear economic weakness could backfire, potentially raising long-term rates [12]. - Powell's stance of letting data guide decisions emphasizes the Fed's independence amid political attacks [13][14]. Future Policy Pathways - If the anticipated inflation from tariffs proves to be minimal, the Fed may consider earlier rate cuts, especially if the job market weakens further [15]. - Conversely, if tariffs lead to significant inflation, the Fed will face difficult choices between controlling inflation and maintaining employment stability [16][17].