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特朗普考虑攻击,霍尔木兹风险骤升?
华尔街见闻·2025-06-19 10:07

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the escalating military tensions between the U.S. and Iran, particularly focusing on the threat posed by Iran's former economic minister to control the Strait of Hormuz, a critical maritime route for global oil trade, which could lead to significant disruptions in the global energy market [1][2][6]. Group 1: Iran's Threat and Its Implications - Iran's former economic minister, Ehsan Khandouzi, announced that from a specified date, oil tankers and LNG carriers would require Iranian approval to pass through the Strait of Hormuz for the next 100 days [2][4]. - The Strait of Hormuz is vital, with approximately 20% of global oil trade, equating to about 18 million barrels per day, passing through this narrow passage [6][9]. - Morgan Stanley predicts that a blockade of the Strait could push Brent crude oil prices to between $120 and $130 per barrel, indicating a potential surge in oil prices if the strait is closed [8]. Group 2: Regional Tensions and U.S. Involvement - The situation is exacerbated by recent Israeli airstrikes on Iran, increasing regional tensions and the likelihood of military conflict [4][10]. - There is uncertainty regarding whether Khandouzi's statements reflect official Iranian government policy or are merely personal opinions, as the Iranian oil and foreign ministries have not commented [5]. - The key issue remains whether the U.S. will intervene in the conflict, as such involvement would likely lead to disruptions in shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, further destabilizing the global energy market [12].