以伊战争中让世界惶恐的霍尔木兹海峡

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the strategic importance of the Strait of Hormuz as a critical oil and gas transportation route and the potential implications of Iran's military capabilities to block this passage amid ongoing tensions with Israel [3][4][20]. Group 1: Importance of the Strait of Hormuz - The Strait of Hormuz is a vital oil and gas transport corridor, connecting the Persian Gulf to the Indian Ocean, with an average depth of 70 meters and a narrowest point of approximately 38.9 kilometers [6][11]. - In 2024, around 20% of global oil liquid consumption, equating to approximately 20 million barrels per day, is expected to pass through the Strait [9][14]. - The seven oil-producing countries along the Persian Gulf contribute to over 30% of global oil production, with Qatar being a significant liquefied natural gas exporter [9][12]. Group 2: Military Capabilities of Iran - Iran has developed a range of military capabilities, including cruise and ballistic missiles, drones, and naval mines, which could be employed to threaten the closure of the Strait of Hormuz [22][23][26]. - The narrowness of the Strait, with significant portions in Iranian waters, allows Iran to potentially disrupt maritime traffic effectively [20][22]. - The deployment of naval mines is a primary method Iran could use to obstruct shipping, posing significant challenges for mine clearance operations [23][29]. Group 3: Impact of Ongoing Conflicts - The ongoing conflict between Israel and Iran has heightened concerns over potential disruptions to oil transportation through the Strait, leading to increased shipping costs and hesitance among oil tanker operators [34][38]. - As tensions escalate, tanker rates have surged by over 30%, reflecting the market's anxiety regarding potential interruptions in oil flow [38][42]. - The article notes that even without a formal blockade, the threat of conflict has already led to significant changes in shipping routes and increased insurance costs for vessels operating in the region [44][46]. Group 4: Global Economic Implications - A blockade of the Strait of Hormuz would have severe repercussions for global oil supply, potentially leading to increased prices and supply chain disruptions [11][30]. - The article emphasizes that the closure of this critical passage could provoke responses from foreign powers, particularly those reliant on oil imports from the region [30][32]. - The interconnectedness of global oil markets means that any significant disruption in the Strait would likely lead to broader economic consequences, affecting energy prices worldwide [30][32].