再论：中国人口往何处去？

Group 1: Population Changes and Trends - The total population of China has been decreasing since its peak in 2021, with projections indicating it will fall below 1.4 billion by 2027 and below 1.3 billion by 2039 [2][7] - The number of newborns in 2024 is expected to be 9.54 million, lower than previous predictions, with further declines anticipated in subsequent years, potentially dropping below 9 million in 2025 and 8 million in 2028 [5][6] - China entered a deep aging society in 2021, with expectations to reach super-aged status by 2032, and projections suggest it will match Japan's aging level by 2048 [8][11] Group 2: Fertility Rates and Marriage Trends - Fertility rates among women aged 15-29 are higher than those in Japan and the UK, but rates for women aged 30-49 are significantly lower, indicating a need for policies that encourage childbirth among older women [2][16] - The declining marriage rate is attributed to gender imbalance and educational disparities, with a notable surplus of males in younger age groups and a higher number of educated women than men in higher education [25][30] - The average marriage age in China is lower than in several developed countries, yet the overall fertility rate remains low, suggesting that early marriage does not necessarily lead to higher birth rates [16][17] Group 3: Urbanization and Migration Trends - Urbanization rates are slowing, with the annual growth rate dropping from 1.4 percentage points to approximately 0.8 percentage points post-2021, while the urbanization rate is projected to reach 67% by 2024 [32][36] - The proportion of migrant workers moving across provinces is decreasing, with an increasing average age of migrant workers, indicating a trend towards local employment rather than migration [39][40] - Major urban areas continue to attract population inflows, with cities like Suzhou, Nanjing, Shenzhen, and Guangzhou experiencing significant net population increases, reflecting ongoing urbanization trends [46][51] Group 4: Economic Implications of Population Changes - The share of the secondary industry in GDP is declining, while the tertiary sector is expected to grow, with projections indicating that the tertiary sector will account for 63% of GDP by 2024 [57][59] - Employment in the secondary industry has been decreasing since 2012, with a notable drop in industrial employment numbers expected to continue [59][64] - The aging population and rising dependency ratios will increase demand for services, suggesting a need for policies that support the growth of the service sector [65][70]