张瑜：美国经济的前瞻指标们

Core Viewpoint - The article indicates that the U.S. economy is showing signs of a downward trend, but the probability of a significant downturn is low. Key indicators across employment, inventory, investment, consumption, and financial conditions suggest a weakening economic structure [2]. Group 1: Employment Market - The employment market is experiencing structural weakening, with a significant cooling in supply-demand relationships. Job openings are at 4.4%, below the 12th percentile since 2018, indicating weaker labor demand compared to pre-pandemic levels [5][20]. - Labor supply is also weak, with a participation rate of 62.4%, which is below the 38th percentile since 2018. The labor market's supply-demand gap is at 1.0, indicating a significant cooling [21]. - Leading indicators suggest a downward trend in the employment market, with rising unemployment claims pointing towards an increase in the unemployment rate [23]. Group 2: Inventory - The U.S. is currently in a weak inventory replenishment cycle, with inventory growth turning positive in 2024 but at a low rate. The manufacturing PMI has been fluctuating around 50, indicating alternating active and passive replenishment [6][27]. - Three leading indicators suggest a low probability of large-scale inventory replenishment in the near future, with the manufacturing PMI indicating weak inventory investment [30]. Group 3: Private Sector Investment - Non-residential investment is expected to continue declining in the next six months, with leading indicators such as manufacturing PMI and new orders showing weakness [7][34]. - In the real estate sector, weak demand, high inventory, and elevated financing costs are expected to hinder improvement in real estate investment [39]. Group 4: Consumer Spending - Consumer income growth is slowing, with disposable income growth recorded at 4.2% in Q1 2025, below the historical average of 5.2% [10][58]. - The wealth effect is diminishing, with a significant drop in excess wealth from $14.9 trillion to $11.1 trillion, a decrease of 26% [65]. - Despite reduced consumer spending capacity, the health of household balance sheets remains strong, with low leverage and manageable interest payment burdens [73]. Group 5: Financial Conditions - Financial conditions are currently in a loose state, with the Bloomberg Financial Conditions Index turning positive again after a tightening period due to tariff policies [78]. - The Chicago Fed's National Financial Conditions Index also indicates a loose financial environment, remaining at the 42nd percentile since 2018 [80].