半导体设备市场：中外冰火两重天！

Core Viewpoint - The global semiconductor equipment market is projected to grow by 21% year-on-year in Q1 2025, reaching $32.05 billion, despite a 5% quarter-on-quarter decline, indicating resilience in the industry amid geopolitical uncertainties and supply chain adjustments [1][37]. Regional Summaries Chinese Mainland - In Q1 2025, the revenue was $10.26 billion, maintaining its position as the largest single market globally, but experienced a 14% quarter-on-quarter and 18% year-on-year decline, reflecting a "double drop" trend [5][6][25]. - The market share of the Chinese mainland shrank from 47% in the previous year to 32% due to significant investments in semiconductor equipment in Taiwan and Korea [6]. Korea - The Korean semiconductor equipment market saw a robust performance in Q1 2025, with revenues of $7.69 billion, marking a 24% quarter-on-quarter and 48% year-on-year increase, driven by a recovery in memory chips and substantial investments from major companies [9][10]. - The Korean government’s "K-Semiconductor Strategy" includes significant tax incentives and subsidies, further boosting the market [10][11]. Chinese Taiwan - Taiwan's semiconductor equipment market experienced a remarkable growth of 203% year-on-year in Q1 2025, reaching $7.09 billion, fueled by major manufacturers' expansion plans and advanced packaging technologies [12][15]. - TSMC's aggressive investment in advanced processes, including a significant capital expenditure directed towards new technologies, has been a key driver of this growth [12][14]. North America - North America's equipment market revenue reached $2.93 billion in Q1 2025, reflecting a 41% quarter-on-quarter decline but a 55% year-on-year increase, indicating a "pulse-like" expansion pattern influenced by concentrated procurement in the previous quarter [16][17]. - The market is expected to rebound in Q2 2025, driven by ongoing investments in advanced manufacturing processes and local production initiatives [17]. Japan - Japan's semiconductor equipment market reported a 20% year-on-year increase in Q1 2025, reaching $2.18 billion, supported by government subsidies and local production expansions, despite an 18% quarter-on-quarter decline [19][20]. Europe - The European semiconductor equipment market faced a significant downturn, with revenues dropping 54% year-on-year and 11% quarter-on-quarter to $0.87 billion, attributed to ineffective policy execution and reduced capital expenditures [21][22]. - The lack of competitive local semiconductor manufacturing capabilities has exacerbated the market's decline, leading to increased supply chain risks [23][24]. Industry Dynamics - The global semiconductor equipment market is characterized by a structural differentiation, with high-end chips driven by AI demand maintaining price resilience, while mid-range chips face downward pressure due to overcapacity [39][42]. - The industry is currently in a recovery phase, with Q1 2025's decline attributed to seasonal fluctuations and geopolitical factors rather than a complete cycle shift [40][42]. - Future growth is anticipated as capacity expansion and demand recovery are expected to lead the industry into an expansion phase in the latter half of 2025 [42].