中金：Hibor如何影响港股？

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market has experienced fluctuations due to the impact of "reciprocal tariffs," with the Hang Seng Index dropping below the emotional low point from the previous trade friction, but stabilizing around the support level of 20,500 points before rebounding. Recent optimism in U.S.-China tariff negotiations and the performance of sectors like new consumption and innovative pharmaceuticals have contributed to a new round of market increases, although the index has struggled to break through the 23,000-24,000 range [1][2][4]. Group 1 - Since the implementation of reciprocal tariffs on April 2, the Hong Kong stock market has underperformed compared to global markets, with increasing concentration and crowding in sectors such as new consumption, innovative pharmaceuticals, essential retail, and banking, while sectors like discretionary retail and consumer services lagged behind [1][2][4]. - The sharp decline in Hong Kong Interbank Offered Rate (Hibor) since early May, with the 1-month Hibor dropping from 4.1% to 0.6%, indicates a significant increase in short-term liquidity, which has positively influenced market trends, particularly for growth stocks concentrated in new consumption and innovative pharmaceuticals [8][9][25]. - The decline in Hibor is attributed to the automatic operations of the currency board system under the linked exchange rate regime, with the Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) injecting substantial liquidity to maintain the currency peg, resulting in a significant drop in Hibor rates [11][14][17]. Group 2 - The HKMA's liquidity injection was notably larger than historical norms, with a total of 1,294 billion HKD injected in just four days, leading to a rapid decline in the 1-month Hibor to 0.5% and a swift depreciation of the Hong Kong dollar towards the weak end of the peg [18][20][34]. - The influx of liquidity, combined with a weaker U.S. dollar and positive signals from U.S.-China negotiations, has supported the overall performance of the Hong Kong stock market, particularly benefiting crowded trades in growth sectors [26][30][41]. - The current market environment is characterized by an excess of liquidity ("funding boom") and limited returns ("asset scarcity"), leading to concentrated trading in sectors like new consumption and innovative pharmaceuticals, with trading volumes reaching historical highs [27][28][49]. Group 3 - The outlook for Hibor suggests that it is unlikely to decrease further, with potential tightening of liquidity expected as the HKMA may need to intervene to maintain the weak end of the peg, especially as the Hong Kong dollar approaches the 7.85 threshold [38][41]. - The market may face challenges due to the potential for liquidity tightening, the impact of ongoing U.S.-China tariff negotiations, and the pressure from a high number of IPOs and placements, which could increase supply and affect stock performance [41][42][46]. - Investors are advised to consider adjusting their positions, potentially shifting towards dividend-paying stocks or waiting for opportunities to acquire quality assets at lower costs, particularly in light of the current market volatility [50].