雪球·2025-06-20 07:40Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the structural differentiation and paradigm shift in the current Chinese consumer market, highlighting the rapid growth of new consumption sectors compared to the stagnation of traditional consumption sectors like high-end liquor [2][10]. Group 1: Comparison of New and Old Consumption Markets - Traditional consumption, exemplified by Wuliangye, faces challenges due to policy restrictions, shrinking demand, and valuation corrections. The 2025 policy prohibits government agencies from providing alcohol at official receptions, impacting high-end liquor consumption [3][4]. - Economic deflation and consumption downgrade are evident, with CPI showing negative growth for two consecutive quarters in 2025, leading consumers to prefer more cost-effective products. The price of Feitian Moutai has dropped below 2000 yuan per bottle, weakening the "face-saving" function of high-end liquor [3][4]. - The valuation bubble in the liquor sector has burst, with a 200% increase in the sector from 2020 to 2024, leading to concerns about whether Wuliangye's earnings growth can match its valuation as the dynamic P/E ratio falls to 7.8 times [3][4]. - High inventory levels and weak demand in traditional consumption scenarios, such as weddings and business banquets, have resulted in a revenue growth slowdown for major liquor companies, with growth rates dropping to 5%-10% in Q1 2025 [3][4]. Group 2: Explosive Logic of New Consumption - New consumption, represented by Pop Mart, thrives on emotional value and the needs of Generation Z, utilizing blind box strategies to create uncertainty and surprise, achieving a gross margin of 50.9% in 2024, significantly higher than traditional sectors [4][5]. - Pop Mart has established an IP ecosystem and global expansion strategy, planning to increase overseas stores by 80% to 230 by 2025, enhancing cultural output [5]. - The company has built supply chain and channel barriers, rapidly expanding production capacity and enhancing user engagement through a combination of direct stores and robotic shops [5]. - The influx of southbound capital exceeding 610 billion HKD and policies promoting "old-for-new" exchanges are stimulating the new consumption sector, with the toy market expected to reach 110.1 billion yuan by 2026, growing at a CAGR of 20% [5][6]. Group 3: Core Drivers of Market Transformation - The shift in consumer behavior is characterized by a focus on "quality-price ratio" and "emotional-price ratio," with new consumption companies experiencing a revenue growth rate of 65% in 2024, compared to just 2.4% for traditional consumption [6]. - Technological advancements and data-driven strategies are facilitating the rapid response of new consumption companies to market demands, with online retail accounting for 26.8% of total retail sales in 2024 [6]. - Policy support and capital inflow are crucial for the recovery of traditional consumption, which relies on further policy measures to stimulate growth [6]. Group 4: Future Investment Opportunities - Traditional consumption companies like Wuliangye have potential for valuation recovery, but face short-term risks from policy restrictions and high inventory levels. Long-term prospects depend on economic recovery and policy easing [7][8]. - New consumption companies like Pop Mart exhibit strong growth potential due to their IP ecosystem, global expansion capabilities, and increasing emotional economic penetration, with overseas revenue expected to grow by 259.6% year-on-year in 2025 [8].