“人间清醒”马斯克：和AI海啸相比，DOGE不值一提，超级智能今年或明年必然到来

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses Elon Musk's insights on the imminent arrival of AI superintelligence and its potential impact on humanity and the economy, emphasizing the urgency of addressing AI-related challenges over traditional governmental issues. Group 1: AI Superintelligence Predictions - Musk predicts that digital superintelligence may arrive this year or next, stating, "If it doesn't happen this year, it will definitely happen next year" [7] - He defines digital superintelligence as intelligence that is "smarter than any human in anything" [7] - The economic scale driven by AI is expected to grow exponentially, potentially reaching thousands or even millions of times the current economy [4][9] Group 2: Human Intelligence and Robotics - Musk forecasts that the number of humanoid robots will far exceed that of humans, possibly reaching 5 to 10 times the human population [4][14] - He suggests that human intelligence may eventually account for less than 1% of all intelligence [10] Group 3: Government Efficiency and Focus on Technology - Musk describes his experience in the government efficiency department as a "fun side quest," ultimately deciding to return to his main focus on technology [6] - He compares the task of fixing government inefficiencies to "cleaning a beach" in the face of an impending "tsunami" of AI [3][6] Group 4: Hardware and Infrastructure for AI - Musk's team has made significant advancements in AI training hardware, reducing the timeline for building a supercluster of 100,000 GPUs from 18-24 months to just 6 months [12] - The current training center has 150,000 H100 GPUs, 50,000 H200 GPUs, and 30,000 GB200 GPUs, with plans for a second center [13] Group 5: Vision for the Future - Musk envisions a future where humanity becomes a multi-planetary species, with plans to make Mars self-sufficient within approximately 30 years [15] - He believes that expanding consciousness to interstellar levels is crucial for the longevity of civilization [14]