2nm竞赛：英特尔18A面临艰巨挑战

Core Viewpoint - Intel is striving to become a global leader in wafer foundry services, focusing on its 18A process technology as a core part of its strategy amid increasing competition in the 2nm chip market [1][2]. Group 1: Investment and Financial Performance - Over the past four years, Intel has invested more than $90 billion in capital expenditures to expand its wafer foundry business and close the gap with TSMC and Samsung [1]. - Intel's wafer foundry division incurred a loss of nearly $13 billion last year, and the company's stock price has dropped nearly 50% since its peak in 2024 [1]. Group 2: Technological Advancements - Intel's new 18A process, currently in risk production, is expected to enhance performance and energy efficiency through innovations like RibbonFET transistors and PowerVia backside power delivery [2]. - The transition to smaller process nodes, such as 2nm, is costly and complex, with initial yields typically low [1]. Group 3: Competitive Landscape - TSMC holds over two-thirds of the global wafer foundry market share and is expected to maintain a significant lead in 2nm technology, with plans to start mass production in the second half of 2025 [3]. - TSMC's 2nm process is projected to improve performance by 10% to 15% and reduce power consumption by up to 30% compared to the 3nm node, with a current yield rate of 60% [3]. - In contrast, Intel's yield for the 18A process is estimated to be only 20% to 30%, while Samsung's competing technology has a yield of 40% [3]. Group 4: Customer Dynamics - TSMC has a large and loyal customer base, including major clients like Apple and AMD, who have committed to using its 2nm technology [4]. - Intel is diversifying its strategy by considering TSMC as an alternative supplier for its upcoming Nova Lake desktop processors, expected to launch in 2026 [4]. Group 5: Challenges Ahead - Despite claims that the 18A process will offer higher performance and lower power consumption compared to TSMC's nodes, Intel faces challenges in density and cost advantages [5]. - Intel has experienced delays in launching new nodes, with some external customers withdrawing after initial trial production, leading to lower-than-expected demand [5].