国泰海通研究｜一周研选0614-0620

Group 1 - The article discusses the recent divergence between the RMB exchange rate and the US-China interest rate differential, attributing it to the weakening credit of US assets, which enhances the willingness of enterprises to convert currency [3] - The article emphasizes that the future pricing of the RMB exchange rate should consider the credit of the US dollar, suggesting that a weaker dollar environment provides greater liquidity and policy space domestically [3] Group 2 - The 2025 Lujiazui Forum focuses on global financial governance, extensive financial opening, and the integration of capital markets with technological innovation [7] - The forum highlights the importance of a comprehensive foreign exchange innovation policy to support high-quality development [7] Group 3 - The article identifies six misconceptions about stablecoins, including the belief that their value is absolutely stable and that all fiat currencies can issue stablecoins in large quantities [9] - It also discusses the potential impact of stablecoins on the supply of US dollars and their role in the RWA market [9] Group 4 - The article outlines a trend of Chinese residents moving their deposits back into wealth management products due to declining deposit rates, reversing a previous trend of deposit inflow [11] - This shift indicates a changing landscape in wealth allocation among Chinese residents [11] Group 5 - The article reviews the historical performance of assets during periods of a weakening dollar since 1970, suggesting investment opportunities in foreign exchange markets, commodities, and non-US equities [13] - It highlights the increasing likelihood of dollar depreciation due to misaligned monetary policies and external circulation obstacles [13] Group 6 - The article presents ten investment themes in the Chinese stock market, focusing on frontier technologies, advanced manufacturing, and improving market structures [15][20] - It emphasizes the potential of AI, bioeconomy, 6G communication, low-altitude economy, deep-sea technology, and autonomous driving as key investment areas [16][17][18][21][23] Group 7 - The article discusses the acceleration of capital market reforms, emphasizing the importance of RMB internationalization and capital opening in stabilizing the stock market [29] - It notes that the integration of technology and industry innovation is crucial for future market developments [29]