半年大涨220%，泡泡玛特接下来还能上车吗？

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses three assets that have seen significant growth in the first half of 2025: gold, innovative pharmaceuticals, and Pop Mart, highlighting their performance and potential for future investment [1][2]. Group 1: Asset Performance - Gold has increased by approximately 30% over the past six months [1]. - The innovative pharmaceutical index in the A-share market has risen by 20%, while the Hong Kong innovative pharmaceutical index has surged by 50% [1]. - Pop Mart has experienced an extraordinary increase of 220% in the Hong Kong market over the same period [1]. Group 2: Wealth Consensus - The ability of an asset to sustain growth is largely dependent on whether it is recognized as a wealth consensus by society [3]. - Real estate has historically been the strongest wealth consensus over the past 20 years, leading to significant appreciation and investment returns [5]. - Innovative pharmaceuticals are seen as a potential growth sector but lack the broad societal consensus that real estate once had [7]. - Pop Mart does not meet the criteria for wealth consensus, as its appeal is limited to a niche market and lacks widespread understanding and acceptance [8][9]. Group 3: Value Assessment - The article emphasizes the importance of distinguishing between value overshooting and value recovery when assessing asset price movements [14]. - Gold and innovative pharmaceuticals are viewed as undergoing a value recovery process, with gold's price being suppressed historically by the strength of the dollar [16][17]. - The innovative pharmaceutical sector is experiencing upward momentum due to previously low valuations and strong performance exceeding expectations [18][19]. - In contrast, Pop Mart is characterized as experiencing value overshooting, with unsustainable price increases leading to anticipated corrections [20]. Group 4: Investment Recommendations - The article suggests that gold is the most stable asset among the three, with innovative pharmaceuticals following, while Pop Mart is expected to face significant corrections [23][24]. - It is recommended that investors allocate the majority of their funds to stable income-generating assets rather than seeking short-term high returns [25]. - Investors are encouraged to consider gold and high-interest deposit-type assets for more secure investment strategies [26].