【广发宏观吴棋滢】5月财政收支数据：主要特征和后续线索

Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent trends in China's fiscal revenue and expenditure, highlighting a slight decline in growth rates for both public fiscal revenue and tax revenue in May, while also addressing the implications of these trends on broader economic conditions and fiscal policy. Fiscal Revenue Trends - In May, public fiscal revenue growth slowed to 0.1% year-on-year, down from 1.9% in the previous month, while tax revenue growth also decreased to 0.6% from 1.9% [1][5][6] - Non-tax revenue turned negative for the first time in 2024, with a year-on-year decline of 2.2%, attributed to reduced reliance on non-tax revenue and a significant downward adjustment in the growth target for non-tax revenue [1][5] - Cumulatively, public fiscal revenue for the first five months showed a year-on-year decline of 0.3%, narrowing the gap from the annual target by 0.37 percentage points [1][5] Tax Revenue Breakdown - Value-added tax performed well with a cumulative year-on-year increase of 2.4%, likely linked to improved industrial profits [8] - Personal income tax saw a significant increase of 8.2% year-on-year, influenced by a low base, tax reconciliations, and active second-hand housing transactions [8] - Consumption tax showed neutral performance, with a cumulative year-on-year growth of 1.6%, reflecting a mismatch with high retail sales growth [9] Fiscal Expenditure Insights - In May, narrow fiscal expenditure growth slowed to 2.6%, with central government expenditure rising by 11.0% and local government expenditure increasing by 0.9% [12] - The resilience in expenditure is attributed to the accelerated issuance of ordinary government bonds, which reached 39% of the annual target by May, the highest level in recent years [12][13] - Social security and employment expenditures maintained high growth rates, reflecting strong fiscal support for social security funds and employment policies [12] Broader Fiscal Context - Government fund revenue growth turned negative again in May, with a year-on-year decline of 8.1%, primarily due to a significant drop in land use rights revenue [15][16] - The real estate market's performance is a key constraint, with land sales showing a downward trend in April and May [15][16] - The overall fiscal situation indicates that while narrow fiscal targets may be met, broader fiscal outcomes remain uncertain due to fluctuations in the land market [15][16] Future Outlook - The improvement of macroeconomic price levels, particularly the Producer Price Index (PPI), is crucial for enhancing corporate profits and tax revenues [17] - The establishment of new policy financial tools is anticipated to support infrastructure investment and credit growth, potentially alleviating construction sector challenges [17]