申万宏观·周度研究成果（6.14-6.20）

Group 1: Key Insights - The article discusses the significant fluctuations in the Hong Kong dollar's exchange rate since May, highlighting its movement between strong and weak exchange guarantees, and the underlying causes and potential market impacts [7][8]. - It addresses the recent pause in local government subsidies, examining the changes in the "old for new" mechanism compared to 2024 and the rapid usage of subsidies in certain regions, as well as the effectiveness of the policy [9][8]. - The article analyzes the rebound in M1 growth as of May, suggesting that subsequent policy financial tools may stabilize and strengthen credit performance [12]. - It explores the divergence between consumption and production, attributing it to differences in holiday distribution, e-commerce promotions, and declines in exports and investments [16]. - The geopolitical situation in the Middle East is noted as a factor driving up oil and gold prices [18]. - The article outlines the recent policy initiatives in Shenzhen aimed at deepening reform and innovation, including enhancing collaboration between industry and academia, improving financial services for the real economy, and promoting talent acquisition [22]. Group 2: Economic Data and Trends - The article presents a detailed analysis of M2 and M1 year-on-year growth rates, indicating trends in monetary supply [14]. - It includes charts depicting the year-on-year growth of social retail sales, breaking down contributions from various sectors [16]. - The article mentions the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting outcomes, including the decision to maintain the federal funds rate and adjustments to economic and inflation forecasts [25].