雪球·2025-06-22 02:16Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent decline in the Chinese liquor industry, particularly focusing on the performance of major brands like Moutai, Wuliangye, Fenjiu, and Luzhou Laojiao, and analyzes their valuation through the Price-to-Earnings Ratio (PR) model [2][9]. Group 1: PR Trends of Major Brands - The PR trends for Moutai, Wuliangye, Fenjiu, and Luzhou Laojiao are presented, indicating significant fluctuations in their valuations over time [3][4][5][7]. - Moutai's PR reached a new low in June 2023, attributed to the continuous decline in the wholesale price of its flagship product, which has led to capital outflow [9]. Group 2: Valuation Comparison Analysis - The lowest PR values for Wuliangye, Fenjiu, and Luzhou Laojiao occurred in September 2024, coinciding with a market downturn, while Moutai's lowest was in June 2023 [9]. - Historical PR values show that the current PR levels for these brands are significantly higher than their historical lows, suggesting a potential mispricing in the past [10]. Group 3: Future Valuation Outlook - It is deemed unlikely that the liquor industry will revert to the valuation levels seen in 2013-2014 due to the maturation of market pricing mechanisms and the increasing sophistication of capital [11]. - The article emphasizes that using the PR model for investment implies a left-side buying strategy, which requires patience during periods of price decline [12].