专题回顾 | 重点城市库存结构特征与存量供给研判

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market has stabilized since 2025, with new supply being restrained, leading to a weak recovery in transactions and a decline in inventory levels, indicating initial success in destocking efforts [3][30]. Group 1: Inventory and Depletion Cycle - As of April 2025, the narrow inventory across 50 cities has decreased to 30.557 million square meters, down 1% month-on-month and 10% year-on-year, while the depletion cycle has reached 20.98 months, a decrease of 0.5% month-on-month and 6% year-on-year [5][7]. - Inventory levels in first-tier cities remain stable, while second and third-tier cities have seen a reduction, with depletion cycles in first and second-tier cities dropping below 20 months, but still reaching 30 months in third and fourth-tier cities, indicating ongoing inventory risks [7][30]. Group 2: Freshness of Inventory - Approximately 54% of the inventory consists of supply from 2020 to 2023, with first-tier cities showing significantly higher freshness compared to second and third-tier cities [11][13]. - Cities like Shenzhen, Hangzhou, and Chengdu have a high proportion of recent supply, while cities like Wuxi have a significant amount of old inventory, with nearly 30% being from over ten years ago [17][30]. Group 3: Area Segmentation - The main inventory is concentrated in the 100-140 square meter range, with 100-120 square meters and 120-140 square meters accounting for 24% and 20% of the total inventory, respectively [20][21]. - Smaller units (below 70 square meters) and larger units (above 180 square meters) have seen a decrease in inventory share, while the 80-140 square meter segment has shown a "U" shaped trend in inventory proportions [21][22]. Group 4: Housing Type - Three-bedroom units dominate the inventory, making up 52% of the total, while four-bedroom units account for 28%. The share of two-bedroom units is around 10% [26][27]. - The inventory distribution is more balanced in first-tier cities, while second and third-tier cities show higher concentrations of two-bedroom units, indicating varying market dynamics across city tiers [27][30]. Group 5: Summary and Forecast - The combination of restrained supply and stabilized transactions has led to inventory levels reaching a temporary low, with ongoing improvements in the depletion cycle [30][34]. - Three categories of cities face significant supply constraints: hot cities with high inventory freshness, second and third-tier cities with severe old inventory accumulation, and cities with mismatched inventory and transaction structures [30][34].