深度 | 谁会是下任美联储主席？—— “特朗普经济学”系列之十八【陈兴团队·财通宏观】

Group 1: Potential Candidates for the Next Federal Reserve Chair - The three main candidates for the next Federal Reserve Chair are Kevin Warsh, Kevin Hassett, and Christopher J. Waller [1][4][5] - Warsh is viewed favorably by Trump and emphasizes the need for balance sheet reduction before interest rate cuts, while Hassett is the most dovish, advocating for rate cuts to stimulate economic growth [1][7] - Waller predicts a moderate economic slowdown and supports rate cuts under specific conditions, such as rising unemployment and declining inflation [1][7] Group 2: Economic Perspectives of Candidates - Warsh believes high inflation is primarily due to quantitative easing (QE) and that the economy remains strong despite external shocks [6][7] - Hassett is optimistic about the economic outlook, asserting that tax cuts and deregulation will exert downward pressure on inflation [6][7] - Waller anticipates a slight increase in unemployment and temporary inflation spikes due to tariffs, indicating a more cautious approach [6][7] Group 3: Monetary Policy and Fiscal Responsibility - The candidates generally agree on the need for the Federal Reserve to maintain independence and not intervene in government debt management [2][9] - Warsh and Waller express concerns about unsustainable deficit growth, while Hassett downplays these worries, suggesting that historical debt ceilings will be resolved [2][9][13] - The article discusses the historical context of Federal Reserve responses to fiscal expansions, noting that past chairs have often called for fiscal discipline [10][12] Group 4: Basis for Interest Rate Cuts - The Federal Reserve's shift to an average inflation targeting framework aims to support employment growth in a low inflation environment [3][14] - Recent comments from Powell suggest that the current economic conditions may require a reevaluation of the emphasis on maintaining low inflation, potentially allowing for higher inflation to support employment [14][15] - The upcoming adjustments to the monetary policy framework may influence future decisions on interest rate cuts, with a focus on balancing inflation and employment goals [14][15]