【策略周报】中东冲突叠加关税到期，市场如何应对？

Key Points - The core viewpoint of the article revolves around the recent economic data releases and geopolitical tensions affecting market dynamics, particularly in China and the U.S. [2][3] Economic Data Summary - In May 2025, China's industrial added value increased by 5.8% year-on-year, slightly above the expected 5.7%, but down from the previous value of 6.1% [2] - From January to May 2025, fixed asset investment in China grew by 3.7% year-on-year, below the expected 4.0% and the previous value of 4.0% [2] - In May 2025, China's retail sales increased by 6.4% year-on-year, surpassing the expected 4.9% and the previous value of 5.1% [2] - In the U.S., retail sales fell by 0.9% month-on-month in May, worse than the expected decline of 0.7%, indicating a weakening consumer momentum [2][6] Monetary Policy and Market Reactions - The U.S. Federal Reserve decided to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% to 4.50%, aligning with market expectations, while indicating a potential for two rate cuts in 2025 [2] - The People's Bank of China conducted a 400 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation, maintaining a loose monetary environment amid economic challenges [4] - The geopolitical tensions, particularly the conflict between Israel and Iran, have led to increased uncertainty in global markets, impacting risk assets negatively [5][6] Market Performance Overview - The bond market in China saw slight gains due to the economic data indicating a need for enhanced domestic demand [4] - A-shares experienced a pullback during the Lujiazui Forum, as the anticipated policy benefits did not resonate with the market, compounded by external geopolitical tensions [5] - U.S. stock markets remained volatile, influenced by the escalating conflict in the Middle East and disappointing retail sales data [6]