国泰海通｜宏观：存款从“回家”到“再搬家”

Core Viewpoint - After 2023, there is a noticeable trend of residents' deposits flowing back into wealth management products due to the rapid decline in deposit interest rates, reversing the previous trend of "deposit migration" observed after 2018 [1][2]. Group 1: Deposit Trends - Since 2018, there has been a significant shift of residents' wealth back to deposits, which can be seen as a reversal in wealth allocation [1]. - In 2023, the proportion of residents investing in wealth management products has started to rise again, although the rebound is limited, with deposit allocation still maintaining a high level of around 70% [1]. Group 2: Benefiting Products - As funds flow out of deposits, low-risk bank wealth management products (mainly fixed income) and money market funds are the primary alternatives for residents [2]. - Bond funds may attract some capital inflow when the bond market performs well, while the insurance industry is expected to show accelerated growth in 2024, and the trust market has also shown signs of recovery in recent years [2]. - The trend of residents diversifying their investments into various wealth management products is expected to continue, as deposit rate cuts are likely to outpace the decline in interbank market rates [2].