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不出手的耐心!姜诚最近交流细剖超额收益的来源……
聪明投资者·2025-06-23 06:34

Core Viewpoint - The core competency of value investors often lies in patience, particularly the patience to refrain from making impulsive decisions [18][19]. Group 1: Performance and Strategy - The performance of the managed products has been relatively stable, with several funds outperforming the market despite a lackluster overall performance in 2023 [2][3]. - The top holdings remain consistent, primarily in traditional sectors such as banking, chemicals, construction, and real estate, with a significant portion of the portfolio allocated to these industries [2][3]. - The long-term annualized return of the flagship product managed since December 2018 exceeds 16% [4]. Group 2: Investment Philosophy - The source of excess returns is attributed to a combination of establishing a forward-looking advantage in information, deeper analysis, and different perspectives [8]. - The investment approach emphasizes acquiring high-quality assets at low prices, which is more feasible when the majority do not share the same valuation standards [5][6]. - The belief that good stocks and returns are achieved through endurance and patience is a recurring theme [20]. Group 3: Market Insights - The current market environment has seen prolonged low performance in cyclical industries, which has exceeded most investors' expectations [10]. - The concept of "this time is different" is highlighted as a cautionary note, indicating that prolonged low performance can delay cash returns and diminish value over time [11]. - The outlook for the real estate sector suggests that risks may not be fully cleared, with a preference for a cautious approach until 2025 [13]. Group 4: Sector Analysis - In the banking sector, while the long-term contraction of interest margins is not yet over, the current pricing remains acceptable based on long-term perspectives [14][15]. - The construction industry has shown signs of cash flow improvement, aligning with expectations, which reduces concerns [15]. - The chemical sector faces challenges with many companies operating at a loss, yet some are still managing to generate profits through cost-cutting measures [15]. Group 5: Emerging Trends - The development of AI is viewed as an irreversible trend, although its immediate impact may be overestimated [16]. - The investment strategy involves a cautious approach to emerging sectors, emphasizing the need for thorough research and understanding of price dynamics [22].