9月25日，英伟达创始人黄仁勋 戴着显眼的红色眼镜 ，到 Bg2 Pod 做了一场 播客 对话，时长超过 100 分钟。 而去年 10月4日，同样的两个主持人 布拉德 ·格斯特纳（Brad Gerstner）和 克拉克 ·唐 （ Clark Tang） 还走进英伟达总部，跟黄仁勋畅聊 80分钟。 当时 黄仁勋提出了一个被广泛引用的观点： AI的真正爆发点不是训练，而是推理，而且推理的增长幅度将 是"十亿倍"。 一年之后，他说， "其实当时还是低估了"。 这次访谈，是黄仁勋众多频繁演讲交流 中 比较深入的一次，而且 直面了市场 近期 最关心的争议。 比如， 英伟达既是 OpenAI的投资者，又是其 重大 供应商， 似乎 形成了某种 "循环收入"？ 比如， 未来 供给扩张过快， 2026年 会不会出现产能过剩？ 以及 英伟达的护城河究竟有多深？ 黄仁勋 直面所有问题。 "我们的股权投资不与采购挂钩，它只是一次押注未来巨头的机会。" " 我认为 OpenAI很可能会成为下一个万亿美元市值的超大规模公司。如果真是这样，那么在它成长到那个 规模之前进行投资，就是我们能想到的最明智的决策之一。 " " 所以如果有人告诉我 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the significant rise of Hong Kong innovative pharmaceuticals, which have increased over 100% this year, highlighting the importance of discussions with investment managers regarding this sector [1] - The article references insights from Howard Marks, particularly focusing on three common investment mistakes: overconfidence in predicting the future, assuming the current situation will persist, and being influenced by emotions, which are particularly relevant in today's high-valuation and uncertain market environment [2][3] - The discussion with Chen Jialin stresses the importance of finding a suitable investment stance between "aggressive and defensive," suggesting that avoiding mistakes is more crucial than seizing opportunities [3][4] Group 2 - Additional noteworthy mentions include insights from prominent investors such as "Wall Street's bottom-fishing king" David Tepper, who discusses Chinese assets, Federal Reserve rate cuts, and portfolio composition [4] - The article also highlights Cathie Wood's latest discussions on Alibaba and various hot topics, including Chinese technology, AI competition, and cryptocurrencies [4] - Furthermore, it addresses the new challenges facing asset allocation in the current market, as articulated by Xie Zhiyu [4]

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the importance of asset preservation and diversification in personal investment strategies, particularly in the context of changing economic cycles and debt issues faced by countries like China and the U.S. [2][4][30] Group 1: Investment Strategies - Personal investors should focus on diversifying their asset portfolios rather than relying solely on savings or real estate investments, as many individuals tend to do [2][30] - A recommended allocation of 10% to 15% in gold can provide a good balance and risk hedge within an individual's asset portfolio [2][38] - The concept of "All Weather Strategy" proposed by Ray Dalio highlights the significance of diversification, risk balance, and rebalancing in asset allocation [3][4] Group 2: Economic and Debt Cycles - Debt is identified as a critical factor influencing a country's economic success or failure, with historical examples illustrating the consequences of excessive debt [9][10] - The article discusses the cyclical nature of debt and its implications for economic stability, suggesting that when a country struggles to repay its debt, it faces broader economic challenges [9][10] - The current U.S. debt situation is described as unsustainable, with significant implications for future economic policies and stability [17][19][21] Group 3: Recommendations for Investors - Investors are encouraged to understand the underlying mechanisms of market fluctuations and to manage their investment portfolios accordingly [37][40] - The article suggests that individuals should not merely follow investment conclusions but should learn to think independently and develop their own strategies for asset management [39][40] - The importance of recognizing the cyclical nature of debt and its impact on personal and national economies is emphasized, advocating for a diversified approach to mitigate risks [30][38]

对于今年以来指数涨超 100%的港股创新药，我们今年跟不少投资管理人交流的时候都有谈到过。 前段时间跟 世诚投资 创始人陈家琳的交流，尤为深入。 陈家琳非医学背景出身，但 30年的从业生涯中保持了对医药行业的持续关注，近年更是加强了研究；团队 中投资总监夏骏是医学博士出身，还有拥有实业经验的医药基金经理……在私募机构中属于医药投研实力比 较丰实的了。 再加上坚持高质量成长的投资理念，对于创新药的机会，世诚确实认知起步比较早。 2023年市场聚焦人工智能时，陈家琳就反复说"创新药行业也是一个非常重要的战略性行业，它的重要性与 今年花几千亿美金买原油、半导体的情况是一样的。" 今年以来，随着 BD的不断推进，创新药行情不断走强，也验证了陈家琳的预判。 但在 8月的中报季后，行业普涨开始放缓，再叠加海外诸多的不确定因素，行业内部出现了结构分化，未来 是更加重视阿尔法捕捉的阶段。 在这样的行业背景下，我们与陈家琳聊了三个多小时，虽然话题始终不离开创新药，而水面之下，亦有一家 老牌私募深厚的研究功底。 （ 2019年陈家琳为卖方分析师做的一场培训，聪投记录下来，至今还被津津乐道。点击阅读： 如何从买方 视角做研究？世诚 ...

这并非孤立举动，同日 ARK 还增持百度至4700万美元，显然在加码中国科技。 目前 ARK 在其他与中国相关的公司上也有小额持仓：比亚迪、Pony AI 和京东物流。但与阿里和百度相 比，这些仓位规模要小得多。 阔别4年之后，"木头姐"凯茜·伍德（Catherine Wood）重新出手阿里巴巴。 根据每日交易报告显示，本周一，在阿里股价不断创出2021年底以来新高的当口， "木头姐" 掌舵的ARK 通过两只ETF 买入约1630万美元的阿里巴巴股票。 "木头姐" 早在2014年阿里巴巴IPO后就第一次买入。SEC记录显示，直到2021年 9 月之前，她一直保持 持仓。 9月22日凯茜·伍德接受了彭博采访，谈到一堆的热点问题，包括热辣新鲜的特朗普削减H1B签证，以及AI 竞争、中国科技、加密货币…… 谈到中国科技，她直言估值仅为美国的一半，且在开源软件与电动车产业上的快速迭代让她印象深刻。这种 竞争未必是坏事，反而有利于中美双方创新提速。 对于 AI，她点名"四大"玩家——OpenAI、Anthropic、XAI、Gemini，认为行业正在经历出清，而盈利的 关键在于能否真正转化为企业的生产力提升。 从之前披 ...

以下文章来源于IN咖 ，作者聪明投资者 IN咖 . 贵。 根据最新公布的 13F 文件，大卫·泰珀执掌的 Appaloosa Management 截至 2025 年二季度末，持有美 股市值约为 64.5 亿美元，涉及 38 只股票。 基金头部配置高度集中，前五大重仓股分别为：阿里巴巴（ 12.4% ）、联合健康集团（ 11.9% ）、亚马 逊（ 9.2% ）、维斯特拉（ 5.4% ）及 NRG 能源（ 4.9% ）。 其中，阿里巴巴依然是最大单一持仓品种，显示泰珀对中国科技板块仍有信心。 他不仅以灵活激进的操作闻名，还以敢于 " 油门踩到底 " 的大手笔下注在金融市场留下了无数经典案例。 多视角关注优秀投资人和企业家 在去年 9 · 24 率先喊出 "中国放大招了，买买买" 的大卫 · 泰珀（ David Tepper ），在美联储降息第二 天（9月18日）又发声了。 对的，就是那个著名的"华尔街抄底王"，被德鲁肯米勒称赞为"比自己更有胆量"的大卫 · 泰珀。 这次在 CNBC 的对话，泰珀再次提及中国市场：如果没有芯片出口限制和政策不确定性，中国本就是 " 下 一个 AI 大机会 " 。中国公司的市盈率仍 ...

Core Viewpoint - The current investment landscape is characterized by a new economic cycle, with significant shifts in macroeconomic analysis, particularly the need to focus on country-specific dynamics rather than solely on the US economy [2][25]. Group 1: Major Challenges in Asset Allocation - The first challenge is the misalignment of global economic cycles, where non-US developed countries' monetary policies diverge significantly from the US, influenced by de-globalization and supply chain restructuring [23][24]. - The second challenge is the decline in long-duration risk returns, driven by prolonged monetary easing in the US and increased demand for long-term bonds in China due to economic transformation and aging demographics [26][27]. - The third challenge is the simultaneous volatility of stocks and bonds in overseas markets, necessitating a greater allocation to counter-cyclical assets like gold for risk hedging [29]. Group 2: Insights on Major Asset Classes - For US dollar assets, there is potential for short-term rebounds due to economic soft landing expectations, but long-term attractiveness may diminish due to debt monetization and rising credit risks [30]. - Chinese yuan assets are expected to appreciate in the short term due to improved economic momentum and foreign capital inflows, with long-term growth potential linked to the rising importance of physical assets [30]. - The outlook for bonds remains uncertain, with US Treasury yields expected to steepen while the long-term trajectory for Chinese bonds is influenced by demographic pressures and economic structural changes [30]. Group 3: Investment Strategies and Trends - The investment strategy for cyclical stocks involves a speculative approach based on commodity price movements, which carries high risks due to the assumption of uniformity among companies within the sector [21]. - A more strategic approach involves selecting stocks with high price and income elasticity based on demand expansion trends, particularly in sectors like new energy and lightweight materials [21]. - Value-based strategies focus on identifying buying opportunities in cyclical stocks by analyzing asset elasticity, valuation levels, and demand signals [22]. Group 4: Performance of Managed Funds - The managed funds by the manager have shown significant performance, with the flagship fund achieving a return of 32.9% year-to-date and a cumulative return of 705.37% since inception [2][3]. - The investment philosophy emphasizes a balanced strategy, focusing on high-quality companies and growth stocks, with a high concentration in top holdings [4][6]. - Recent adjustments in the portfolio include increased allocations to semiconductor and biopharmaceutical sectors, reflecting a proactive approach to market trends [7][14].

Core Insights - The article discusses a conversation between Howard Marks, founder of Oak Tree Capital, and Morgan Housel, author of "The Psychology of Money" and "Same As Ever," highlighting the importance of patience and leverage in investing [1] Group 1 - The dialogue emphasizes that while history may not repeat itself, human behavior tends to do so, suggesting that understanding behavioral patterns is crucial for investors [1] - Morgan Housel is portrayed as a significant contributor to the conversation, showcasing his independent thinking and ability to inspire others, including Howard Marks [1] Group 2 - The article also mentions other recommended readings, including insights from Peter Lynch on investing during high volatility and discussions on AI's potential impact on inventory cycles [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the investment philosophy of Peter Lynch, highlighting the importance of understanding businesses, maintaining a long-term perspective, and focusing on valuation metrics to make informed investment decisions [2][3][8]. Group 1: Investment Principles - Lynch advocates for "common-sense investing," where investors leverage their understanding of familiar industries rather than chasing market trends [3][8]. - He stresses the importance of understanding how a company makes money before assessing its stock price, suggesting that this approach leads to more rational investment decisions [4][5]. - Lynch identifies a reasonable valuation range for U.S. stocks, typically between 10 to 20 times earnings, and warns that exceeding this range indicates potential risk accumulation [5][8][16]. Group 2: Market Conditions and Reactions - During market volatility, Lynch advises investors to focus on companies whose fundamentals remain unchanged, even amidst economic downturns [10][46]. - He notes that market corrections can serve as a healthy reset, allowing investors to reassess valuations and identify buying opportunities in fundamentally sound companies [10][19][22]. - Lynch highlights the importance of recognizing that stock prices should ultimately be supported by company earnings, regardless of market fluctuations [20][34]. Group 3: Long-term Perspective - Lynch emphasizes the necessity of a long-term investment horizon, asserting that corporate earnings will generally increase over ten to twenty years, which underpins market growth [8][69]. - He encourages investors to concentrate on a few companies they thoroughly understand, rather than spreading themselves too thin across numerous stocks [55][62]. Group 4: Risk Management - Lynch discusses the risk-reward ratio, suggesting that successful investments should yield significant returns while limiting potential losses to a manageable level [9][46]. - He advises against investing in stocks that have already priced in all positive news, as these may not offer attractive risk-reward scenarios [47][48]. Group 5: Market Opportunities - Lynch points out that many smaller companies may present attractive investment opportunities that are often overlooked by the market, suggesting that diligent research can uncover hidden gems [22][24]. - He encourages investors to leverage their unique insights into local businesses or industries to identify potential investments that others may miss [60][62].

Core Viewpoint - The discussion emphasizes the intersection of macroeconomic perspectives and the evolution of intelligence, particularly focusing on the transformative potential of AI and its implications for future labor systems and economic cycles [3][4][6]. Group 1: Evolution of Intelligence and Economic Impact - Lars Tvede argues that the development of AI is part of a broader cosmic narrative, suggesting that AI is approaching an "innovator stage" where it may achieve self-management and self-evolution capabilities [3][4]. - The potential for AI to significantly enhance productivity and restructure the global economy is highlighted, with a focus on the transition of capital from traditional real estate to computational infrastructure [6][117]. - Tvede emphasizes the importance of understanding three key factors for future economic analysis: technological evolution paths, innovation clusters, and value capture mechanisms [5]. Group 2: Economic Cycles and AI's Role - Tvede predicts that inventory cycles may eventually be eliminated due to real-time AI forecasting, while capital expenditure and real estate cycles will persist but with more rapid and intense rhythms [4][91]. - The discussion includes the notion that AI will enhance the accuracy of economic cycle predictions, utilizing real-time data and advanced modeling techniques [97][100]. - Tvede categorizes economic cycles into three types: inventory cycles (approximately 4.5 years), capital expenditure cycles (9-10 years), and real estate cycles (18-20 years), suggesting that AI will make these cycles more efficient and frequent [92][94]. Group 3: Future of Labor and AI Integration - The conversation touches on the future labor landscape, predicting that by 2050, there could be 4.1 billion intelligent robots, which could potentially produce five times the total output of human labor [45][49]. - Tvede notes that the integration of AI and robotics will lead to a complex task economy where many tasks will be executed by non-human entities, fundamentally altering the structure of the global economy [60][61]. - The emergence of "human cloud," "AI cloud," and "robot cloud" is discussed, indicating a shift towards a more flexible and dynamic task execution system [56][59]. Group 4: Investment Opportunities and Risks - Tvede highlights the potential for significant investment in AI infrastructure, including chips and energy systems, which could exceed 1% of GDP in the coming years [124]. - The discussion also points to the possibility of a new commodity cycle emerging as AI and robotics drive down production costs and influence market dynamics [126][130]. - Tvede expresses optimism about the long-term future, suggesting that the current wave of AI technology will lead to substantial positive changes for society [42][44].