2001 年， 15 岁的纳达尔正式亮相职业赛场， 2005 年夺得首座法网冠军，向上的势头刚刚打开，就遭遇 了被医生诊断为 " 可能无法继续打职业网球 " 的退行性脚疾。 但哪怕你那天只能打出 50% ，你也必须交出那 50% ，不能因为状态不好就随便应付一下，打个 30% 就 放弃。 "有时候你能发挥出 100% 的状态，有时候可能只有 50% ，甚至更低。 从此， " 我整个职业生涯都带着那个脚部的问题在打球。这就是一个镣铐。" 要在那些 " 没有人看到的时 刻 " 里扛住、调整、重新上路。 也正因为经历过那些困境时刻，纳达尔在 2024 年退役前已完成身份转型。 十年来，他构建起稳健的商业版图：包括家乡马洛卡的拉斐尔 · 纳达尔网球学院（现已扩展至科威特）、与 美利亚集团联合创办的 Zel 酒店、与 C 罗合伙经营的 Tatel 餐厅、与法国香水品牌 Henry Jacques 的联 名产品，以及投资于球类运动预订平台 Playtomic 。 他也创立了自己的家族控股公司 Aspemir 与经纪公司，涉足品牌管理、运动经纪、赛事运营等多条赛道。 退役后的他，正在将那些年在比赛中打磨出来的耐心、决断、协 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the performance and resilience of the CSI A500 Index during the current bull market, highlighting its ability to generate significant excess returns compared to its peers, particularly the CSI 300 Index [4][15][16]. Performance Analysis - The CSI A500 Index has shown a remarkable performance, achieving an increase of approximately 20% this year, outperforming 21 out of 31 industry sectors [10]. - Historical data indicates that during previous bull markets, the CSI A500 Index recorded gains of 155.36% from July 2014 to June 2015 and 101.06% from January 2019 to February 2021, demonstrating its capacity to keep pace with market trends [11]. Comparison with CSI 300 - In the current year, the CSI A500 has outperformed the CSI 300 by nearly 3 percentage points, showcasing its competitive edge [16]. - Over a five-year period, the CSI A500 has consistently outperformed the CSI 300, indicating its robustness in various market conditions [17]. Index Composition and Strategy - The CSI A500 Index employs a balanced stock selection method, resulting in a lower allocation to traditional sectors like finance and consumer goods, while favoring emerging sectors such as technology and healthcare [19]. - The median market capitalization of the CSI A500's constituent stocks is below 100 billion, positioning it as a mid-to-large cap index, which allows it to capture a broader market representation [20]. Fund Flows and Investor Sentiment - Since the launch of the CSI A500 ETF, it has attracted significant capital inflows, totaling 210.5 billion, while the CSI 300 ETF experienced outflows of 66.9 billion during the same period [20]. - The CSI A500 ETF has become the second-largest tracked index in the A-share market, reflecting strong institutional and individual investor interest [22]. Investment Strategy - The article suggests that reallocating investments from the CSI 300 to the CSI A500 may provide a different investment experience, potentially enhancing returns [23]. - A multi-asset strategy based on risk parity has shown promising results, with the CSI A500 contributing to a cumulative return of 155.32% since 2014, indicating its effectiveness in diversified portfolios [25]. Pension Fund Considerations - The CSI A500 ETF is included in the personal pension fund directory, offering unique advantages such as fee discounts and tax benefits, making it an attractive option for long-term investors [26].

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the importance of avoiding arrogance in technology investments, advocating for a deep understanding of technological innovations and their value creation potential [4][3]. - It highlights the investment philosophy of Cai Rongcheng from E Fund, focusing on identifying companies with strong value creation capabilities and significant revaluation potential within major industry trends [4][5]. Investment Philosophy - Cai Rongcheng believes that successful investment in the technology sector requires a return to fundamentals, understanding the true value of technological innovations, and developing sustainable investment strategies [4][5]. - His approach involves identifying high-quality growth companies with scarcity or shortage in supply, high competitive barriers, and excellent management [7]. Performance Metrics - As of November 7, 2025, Cai Rongcheng manages five funds with a total scale of 66.73 billion, achieving a return of 111.07% since taking over the E Fund Technology Innovation fund on April 21, 2022, with an annualized return of 23.54% and a year-to-date return of 74.46% [5][6]. - The performance of his funds significantly outperformed the market, with the CSI 300 index returning 17.94% and the electronics sector returning 47.96% during the same period [5]. Investment Strategy - Cai Rongcheng employs a cyclical thinking framework to understand industry undervaluation and overvaluation, focusing on supply and demand elasticity to identify investment opportunities and mitigate market risks [7]. - He emphasizes the importance of drawdown control and avoids zero-sum games, seeking elastic returns within a framework that minimizes significant losses [7]. Case Studies - The article discusses successful investments in companies like Baoxin Software and Tonghuashun, which benefited from the AI wave, showcasing Cai's ability to identify and capitalize on growth opportunities [13][15]. - Cai's investment in Huadian Co., which saw an 82.06% increase in stock price, exemplifies his strategy of buying at market bottoms and making timely exits to secure profits [15]. Future Outlook - Cai Rongcheng anticipates that 2025 will mark the beginning of a significant AI revolution, with increasing demand for computing power and the rapid adoption of AI technologies across various industries [26][27]. - He identifies three main sources of alpha assets: companies with core competitiveness in overseas markets, assets that provide stable returns, and industry leaders with strong risk resilience [30][31].

最近走访很多投资管理人，谈到明年的投资关注点，经济如何起来、以及何时起来……都是投资中的重 要变量。 10 月 29 日，在毕盛投资（ APS ）三十周年庆典论坛的第二天，两位经济学界重磅嘉宾——陈光炎 和朱天的"双贤论道：宏观大势与地缘新局"，让现场参会者直呼过瘾。 一位是毕盛投资 ( 上海 ) 主席，也是新加坡政府前首席经济学家； 一位是中欧国际工商学院副院长兼中方教务长，最受学生欢迎的经济学教授之一。 两位学者从不同角度把脉当下经济，并将最大的症结指向了同一处 —— 房地产。 陈光炎认为 房地产下滑问题更像经济的 " 抽筋 " 而不是"心脏病" 。 他讲得很形象：房价下跌后，消费者信心跟着滑落，原本会花出去的钱变成了银行里的存款，整个社会 的情绪因此冷下来。 这些现象并不神秘，也不是外界想象的 " 全面失速 " ，只是一个曾经过热的领域在快速降温，它带来 的连锁反应压住了需求，拖慢了节奏。 在他看来， 中国过去的产业政策、竞争环境和大市场，形成了一种独特的 " 生态系统效应 " 。 承压 的背面，是力量的积累。 朱天的切口更直接。 他试图回答一个很多投资者心里的疑问：经济下行的核心原因究竟是什么？是结构 ...

以下文章来源于IN咖 ，作者聪明投资者 IN咖 . 多视角关注优秀投资人和企业家 从来没有哪一年沃伦·巴菲特的感恩节动态让人如此期待，在他决定把每年股东信也连同伯克希尔的权杖交给格雷格·阿贝尔之后，大家的沮丧可想而知， 来自奥马哈先知的福音，越来越少了…… 美国时间 11 月 10 日，伯克希尔的官网如约刊登了巴菲特的感恩节信，并宣布了一则动态：当天，巴菲特将 1800 股 A 类股份转换为 270 万股 B 类股 份，并将这些 B 股捐赠给旗下四个家族基金会： 150 万股捐给苏珊 · 汤普森 · 巴菲特基金会，另外三家基金会 —— 谢伍德基金会、霍华德 ·G· 巴菲特 基金会和诺沃基金会，各获得 40 万股。 这些捐赠已于当日完成交付。 好在巴菲特这封信不短，不仅不短，而且透过纸背，你能看到一位 95 岁老人写信时，时而回忆泪目，时而在哈哈大笑。 都让人感同身受。 跟每年 2 月的股东信不同，感恩节信弥漫着人情味，虽然也谈到伯克希尔，但这次生意确实谈的有点少。这部分要等待明年 2 月的阿贝尔股东信了。巴菲 特再次强调说，"我实在想不出有什么人，无论是 CEO 、管理顾问、学者还是政府官员，比格雷格更适合来 ...

Investment Philosophy - The core investment philosophy is that "buying stocks is buying companies," emphasizing the importance of understanding the business behind the stock [9][10]. - Understanding a company's business model and future cash flows is crucial, but it is often challenging to achieve [10][28]. - The concept of "margin of safety" is interpreted as the investor's understanding of the company rather than just its price [38]. Investment Examples - Significant investments include Apple, Tencent, and Moutai, with Apple being a major holding since 2011 [23][42]. - The investment in NetEase was based on a strong belief in its gaming team and business model, resulting in a 20-fold increase in six months [36]. - The investment in General Electric was later deemed a mistake due to a lack of understanding of its business model and a shift in corporate culture [64][68]. Company Analysis - Apple is recognized for its strong corporate culture focused on user experience and long-term value creation, which influences its product decisions [45][56]. - The discussion on Nvidia highlights its strong ecosystem and competitive advantage in the AI chip market, suggesting a sustainable business model [70][74]. - Pinduoduo is viewed as a risk investment, with potential for growth but uncertainty about its long-term sustainability [87][88]. General Investment Advice - Investing is recommended for those who understand the business; otherwise, it is advised to avoid stock trading due to its inherent difficulties [90][93]. - Moutai is suggested as a relatively easy-to-understand investment, despite concerns about changing consumer preferences [92][96]. - The importance of understanding the business and its market dynamics is emphasized, as it significantly impacts investment success [95][97].

" 逆向不是一定要反着来，是要多想一层，大胆假设，然后小心求证。" 一年半前，我们和韩冬聊投资，记住了这句带有他浓烈投资风格印记的话。 那时韩冬从东方红资管"公奔私"，加盟和谐汇一，刚刚经过静默期， 5 个小时深谈很多投资框架、原则和 思考。 点击阅读： 深访和谐汇一韩冬，从思维实验到组合进化 最近这次回访我们听他谈过去一年多的复盘，更像一个正在深度实操的工程师，框架没变，颗粒度细了许 多，很多想法已经在实战中跑了一圈。 韩冬在组合上运用了多策略，从"非共识"选股，到跨市场配置，再到运用衍生品工具更精准表达投资管理和 管理波动…… 但他的锚点没变。 "重仓标的必须出自'好公司'的核心池，这是第一道筛选，也是所有策略的最大公约数。" "我们相信，长期来看，高质量公司贡献了市值增长的绝大部分。我在研究中喜欢了解新事物、愿意尝试新 点子，但落实到投资层面，又希望在重仓股上保证以好公司为前提。" " 说实话，我自己最有成就感、最开心的，还是选到那些逆向、能挑战市场一致预期的标的，最后赚到钱。 " 说到底，他还是那个重视逻辑自洽的人。只是现在，除了选股逻辑上的自洽，还多了客户持有体验上的考 量。 韩冬是个情绪非常稳定的 ...

本周 推荐阅读 这周有三份聪投的独家放送。 一个是坚持了4年的"老朋友"，聪明投资者与国泰基金携手的《深夜食堂》。 想起跟一家银行总行产品经理交流时，他说，最适合银行绝大多数客户的产品还是稳健的，要回撤小、 风险控制好，向上的弹性也不能太差。事实上，经过过去三四年的市场，大家对于回撤的感受都要比过 去来得深刻。 不管科技与能源浪潮如何翻涌，一份安心的投资总是压舱石的存在。 但"稳"常常是一种被低估的力量。 其他值得看 1、 刘煜辉最新发声：A股收官阶段的情绪面大概率不具备进攻性，明年布局最看好四个领域，黄金仍 是最好的定投资产…… 2、 当理性成为稀缺品！从霍华德·马克斯最新备忘录，理解杨东陈光明的"封盘"…… 3、 听一位喜欢研究生意经的价值投资者聊聊，如何做AI时代的好朋友 4、 红利的"老友"时刻：在十月的躁动里，它稳稳当当 点击阅读： 深夜食堂第十三季｜在极端市场环境中，如何寻求"稳"的力量 10月28日到30日，毕盛投资（APS）的三十周年庆典论坛上，我们听了全程，各种干货，比如这篇： 一场不容错过的对话！两个"看多中国的人"深谈稀土博弈、制度韧性与中美格局重估…… 以及跟圆桌对话的嘉宾之一张忆东， ...

还有不到两个月的时间， 2025 年即将收官，而主动权益基金首尾显著的业绩差，将今年极致市场行情映照 了出来。 其中，中泰资管很喜欢研究企业生意模式的田瑀这几句话很有意思： 面对这类观点，我们很好奇圈内专业人士的看法，去翻了过去几年比较有"价值投资者"刻板印象但重仓了科 技行业的基金经理最新披露的三季报，也看了很多人的月度观点和投资分享。 "能评估价值的领域都是价值投资的范围，这其中自然包括科技，差别在于不同领域的价值评估所需要的门 槛并不相同。 ……诚然，科技领域中无法评估价值的企业占比更高，但能够评估的领域也不少，有些判断同样确定性极 高，值得价值投资者深耕。 AI 的发展会使得未来很长一段时间内半导体行业的整体需求增速快于过去 10 年，当下我们仍处于这次科技 变革的初期。结合我国半导体产业的长期发展来看，无论贸易摩擦是阶段性缓和还是加剧，国产替代的方向 都不会变。 究其缘由，就是"老登资产"与"小登资产"之间愈加强烈的市场分歧，也将价值投资与成长投资刻板地摆在了 对立的两面。 在这样的背景下，很多生意在进行价值评估时的长期假设就有迹可循，一部分具有护城河的企业也会给股东 创造更加丰厚的回报，这也使得价 ...

阅读全文 ETF不打烊 刘煜辉最新发声：A股收官阶段的情绪面大概率不具备进攻性，明年布局最看好四个领域，黄金仍是最 好的定投资产…… 原创 ...