Core Insights - The article emphasizes that rather than questioning whether AI is a bubble, it is more pertinent to ask what smart money is doing, highlighting significant investments by major companies like Google, Microsoft, and Amazon in AI [5][15][24] - The demand for computing power in AI is currently immense and unmet, suggesting that if companies like OpenAI and Anthropic doubled their reasoning power, their revenues could also double within a month [5][41] Group 1: AI Investment Landscape - Major tech companies are significantly increasing their capital expenditures in AI, with each round of investment surpassing the previous one [15][16] - The AI market is highly concentrated, with approximately 35 to 36 companies contributing to 99% of the revenue, indicating that it is still in a nascent stage [17][19] - Nvidia is expected to reach a market valuation of $10 trillion within five years, reflecting the industry's growth potential [8] Group 2: Nvidia and Groq Acquisition - Nvidia's acquisition of AI chip startup Groq for approximately $20 billion is seen as a strategic move to enhance its AI capabilities and integrate Groq's low-latency processors into its AI infrastructure [8][9] - Groq's unique selling proposition lies in its LPU chips designed specifically for AI reasoning, which operate independently of the CUDA ecosystem [9][86] - The acquisition is viewed as one of Nvidia's largest transactions, aimed at consolidating its position in the competitive AI landscape [9] Group 3: Chip Development Challenges - The article discusses the misconception that manufacturing chips is the most challenging aspect, asserting that software and keeping pace with industry evolution are more difficult [6][50][51] - Many companies struggle to successfully develop their own AI chips, as evidenced by the challenges faced by Google and others in the chip development space [34][36] Group 4: Economic Implications of AI - The article posits that the most valuable asset in the economy is labor, and enhanced computing power and AI can inject additional "labor" into the economic system [7] - Companies are advised to maintain high brand trust levels, as trust has a compounding effect on profitability [7] Group 5: Speed and Efficiency in AI - Speed is highlighted as a critical factor in user engagement and brand loyalty, with faster responses leading to stronger emotional connections with brands [49][46] - The article argues that the perception of acceptable delays in AI responses is fundamentally flawed, as speed significantly impacts user experience [49][42] Group 6: Future of AI and Chip Integration - The future of AI will likely see companies like OpenAI and Anthropic developing their own chips to maintain competitive advantages [52][50] - The article suggests that the integration of chips into AI systems will become increasingly important for maintaining market leadership [33][25] Group 7: Energy and Infrastructure for AI - The demand for energy to support the growing need for computing power in AI is immense, with renewable energy sources being a viable solution [119][120] - The article discusses the potential for countries like Norway to provide substantial energy resources for AI infrastructure, emphasizing the need for strategic partnerships [126][138]

本周推荐看： 本周一口气把付费专栏的剩下两篇都上新了，不想把今年的任务留到2026年。 大家把芒格围坐一堂，轮番提问，芒格的回答一如既往的精彩，而且讲了不少故事细节。 点击阅读： 1.6万字 | 芒格细讲"一口袋的致胜窍门"：要有同理心，双赢是真实生活的有效配方 其他值得看： 1、 "难的事情"越来越值钱！谷歌创始人谢尔盖·布林在斯坦福最新对话，谈AI时代的硬核技术，以及被 低估的一个新兴领域…… 2、 华创董广阳最新发声：当前食品饮料行业整体估值合理偏低估，传统消费一定能走出来不用太过悲 观…… 备受欢迎的是詹姆斯·安德森这篇，后台看到不少专业投资人都买了付费，其中还有非常知名的基金经 理。 这是 2022 年 2 月的一场长谈。彼时，安德森即将从柏基（ Baillie Gifford ）旗下苏格兰抵押投资信托 （ SMIT ）基金经理岗位上退休。 两个小时非常深入、且酣畅淋漓的对话。对于这位不喜欢活跃在聚光灯下的低调投资人而言，是无比难 得的近距离学习机会，他强调的认知多样性跟芒格多元学科思维是异曲同工。 点击阅读： 2.5万字｜柏基"传奇基金经理"安德森的罕见深访：伟大公司各有各的独特，平庸公司却都 差 ...

2020 年，查理 · 芒格参与雷德兰论坛，与两位主持人进行了一场 1 个多小时的对话。 这场论坛由 Esri公司和雷德兰大学赞助，面向当地社区、提供教育和文化学习项目，致力于让社区群 众学习并参与到当代的重要议题中去。 论坛两位主持人，一位是 Esri 公司的 CEO 杰克 · 丹格蒙德（ Jack Dangermond ）。 杰克 · 丹格蒙德是一位美国亿万富翁和环境科学家，他执掌的 Esri 成立于 1969 年，是世界最大地理 信息系统技术供应商。 Esri 的明星产品是 ArcGIS ，它为家庭提供地理信息软件服务， 2013 年该产品的全球市场份额超过 40% 。截至 2021 年 10 月，据福布斯估计杰克 · 丹格蒙德的个人资产达到 86 亿美元。 另一位主持人拉里 · 伯杰斯（ Larry Burgess ），是当地 A.K. Smiley 公共图书馆的名誉董事，该图 书馆的经营理念为 " 求知欲是唯一的入场费 " 。 在这次论坛中，芒格回顾了自己在加州的投资和慈善活动的诱因和初衷，他也分享了很多自己的人生轶 事。 其中，他花了大量篇幅解释自己如何得到并应用那些 制胜 的 " 窍门 " 。他 ...

在过往采访创新药基金经理时，有一本名为《十亿美元分子》的书，被提起的次数很多。 其中有一句话很有意思， "大众经常认为科学突破是很戏剧性的：真相突然浮现，闪电似的洞见，雷鸣般的启示，放声大笑，像篮球比赛那么激烈，又像咏 叹调那么高亢...... 可实际上，大多数情况恰恰相反：有所突破仅是因为一点调整，一些小事，一个沮丧的科学家靠着略有苗头的数据坚持走下去。一切都源于那个选择了一种 试剂、一项实验、一个方法的瞬间，那个微小而关键的节点 ……" 用这句话来看 2020年之后的医药行业也很恰当。 在低迷的行业环境中，超额收益其实就源于对 "微小而关键的节点"把握，对基金经理在细分行业、个股的深耕与研究提出了更高的要求。 在今年先扬后抑的创新药行情下，我们年中就对创新药的基金经理做过一次盘点， （点此查看 《创新药狂飙90%，这轮袭榜选手的背后打法》 ） 。 临近 2025年终的再次盘点中，我们拉长时间范围，选择任职日期在2017年之前，且每年第一大重仓行业均为医药生物（申万），行业配置占基金净值比超 过80%，总规模超过1亿的医药主动权益基金，又做了次盘点。 | 证券代码 | 证券名称 | 基金经理 | 任职日期 ...

这句话用在当下谷歌的身上，也有点贴切呢。 2022 年 11 月 ChatGPT 引发 "AI 红色警报 " 后，谷歌两位退休也就两年的联合创始人 谢尔盖 · 布林（ Sergey Brin ）和拉里 · 佩奇（ Larry Page ） " 被叫回来帮忙 " ，并开始频繁出现在办公室。 随着 2025 年谢尔盖更多外界亮相，以及 Gemini 的突飞猛进，完全回归的状态不仅仅是点燃了谷歌内部的 创业热情，也让资本圈格外沸腾。 连伯克希尔哈撒韦，在 3 季度都开始大手笔买入谷歌。 （ 点击阅读： 巴菲特新入手的科技巨头是李录第 一大重仓，景林高毅三季度也在猛加仓…… ） 想起马斯克最近讲到 AI 竞争中的三个关键点，首先是人才；以及"硅谷教父"史蒂夫·霍夫曼在上海一场线下 交流中点评 Meta 时说"其内部缺少自己培养的工程师文化"……如今看到谷歌两位硬核技术的创始人回归， 确实有点感叹其技术和人才的护城河，有些很难复制。 一位投资人在点评巴菲特投资助手托德·库姆斯最近离职伯克希尔加盟摩根大通时说，"牛人还是希望跟最牛 的人在一起。" 到底两位创始人回归代表着什么？这段时间其实看了很多 谢尔盖 · 布林 的访 ...

Core Viewpoints - The traditional consumption market in China is expected to recover, and there is no need for excessive pessimism [9] - The consumption market is showing significant differentiation, moving away from the homogenized phase of mass production to a stage where consumers choose products based on their individual characteristics [44] - The rise of AI is ushering in an era of super consumers and super entrepreneurs, where consumer power is increasingly shifting [38][46] Industry Analysis - The food and beverage industry is currently valued at a reasonable low level, with overall valuations being moderate to undervalued [70][78] - The consumption industry has entered a new adjustment period post-2022, driven by the AI wave, leading to the emergence of super consumers and super entrepreneurs [4][40] - The industry is experiencing a cyclical pattern that is closely related to its own development characteristics and is not significantly affected by economic growth rates [24][51] Investment Opportunities - Companies that can adapt to new consumer demands and innovate will find growth opportunities, particularly in new product varieties and business models [16][19] - Diversification strategies, such as concentric diversification, can help companies navigate challenging market conditions [19][20] - International expansion is becoming a clear strategy for many companies, with a focus on markets like Southeast Asia and Africa [22][73] Consumer Behavior - The shift in consumer power means that products must be designed around consumer needs, leading to a reversal of traditional business logic [75] - The demand for personalized and segmented products is increasing, reflecting a more individualized consumer landscape [44][76] Long-term Value - The core value of consumer goods lies in their long-term, stable, and sustainable performance rather than short-term fluctuations [78][80] - Companies with strong business models and the ability to adapt to market changes will continue to thrive, even in challenging economic conditions [53][59]

这是 2022 年 2 月的一场长谈。彼时，詹姆斯 · 安德森（ James Anderson ）即将从柏基（ Baillie Gifford ）旗下苏格兰抵押投资信托（ SMIT ）基金经理岗位上退休。 拥有"伟大公司捕手"标签的安德森，有着鲜明的成长股投资，长期主义特质：不靠解释下个季度，也不靠押 注美联储的下一次加息，而是把主要精力放在一件更难、也更慢的事情上 —— 理解变化：变化从哪里来， 如何扩散，最终会把哪些公司推到怎样的规模。 这场近两小时的深度对话由 Masters in Business 的巴里 · 瑞特霍尔茨（ Barry Ritholtz ）主持，他本身 也是非常资深的企业家、投资顾问和财经作者。 安德森谈得最动人的部分，并不是具体某一只股票，而是他那套自上而下的 " 变化观 " 。 在他看来，金融市场长期最大的误区，是把世界默认成一个会自动回到均衡的系统：只会发生温和的小波 动，然后均值回归。可真正决定长期回报的，往往是少数远离均衡的时刻 —— 技术、组织形态、产业结构 发生跳变，非线性地改写了商业版图。 但理解变化还不够。安德森更看重的是：谁能把拥抱变化的蓝图执行出来。 这也是他对 ...

当主持人问到如何兼顾家庭、事业和兴趣时，马克斯说，" 人生唯一的成功，是能够按照你自己的方式 去生活。"2019年5月他参加聪明投资者主办的《问道·周期》论坛时，回答是一模一样。：） 点击阅读完整版： 霍华德·马克斯今年最精彩对话，从巴菲特芒格到AI、黄金与债券 其他值得看： 1、 SpaceX很可能明年夏天上市！马斯克"投资知己"巴伦的最新对话，谈如何押注那些成功概率更高的"一 把手" 2、 震荡向上，牛市持续！张忆东最新解读2026：美国双宽松趋势确定，"流泪撒种"的大机会在这些结构性 亮点…… 本周值得看： 橡树资本联合创始人霍华德·马克斯最新的交流，也是我们看到今年最值得推荐的一场对话。75分钟的 访谈里，马克斯几乎讲出了他投资哲学中最本质、也最系统的一部分。 马克斯有很多的回答不断call到沃伦·巴菲特与查理·芒格。他讲到自己如何把巴菲特"跳着踢踏舞去上 班"的状态当作理想生活状态，也讲到芒格如何将天赋驯服为系统性的思维框架，并称之为"人生工具 箱"。 他说巴菲特是自己的偶像。在巴菲特即将台前谢幕的时刻，这种多处引用金句的方式，充满了致敬的味 道。 3、 股价大起大落的东南亚"腾讯+阿里"，Sea创 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses Ron Baron's insights on SpaceX's potential IPO and its valuation, emphasizing the long-term investment strategies and cultural aspects of companies led by Elon Musk [5][7][20]. Group 1: Investment in Tesla - Ron Baron invested approximately $400 million in Tesla between 2014 and 2016, yielding about $8 billion in returns to date [17]. - Baron Capital still holds a position in Tesla valued at around $5 billion, with expectations of potentially multiplying returns over the next decade [6]. Group 2: Investment in SpaceX - Baron Capital began investing in SpaceX in 2017, with a total investment of about $1.5 billion, now valued close to $10 billion, making it the largest single holding [7][20]. - There is a high likelihood that SpaceX will go public in the summer of next year, with media speculation suggesting a valuation could reach $1.5 trillion, up from the current $800 billion [20][34]. Group 3: Management Philosophy - The article highlights Musk's management style, which fosters a culture of innovation and accountability, allowing talented individuals to take responsibility and challenge existing ideas [28][30]. - Baron emphasizes the importance of understanding a company's culture and values when making investment decisions, noting that the risk associated with investing in Musk's companies has decreased as they have grown [24][26]. Group 4: Investment Strategy - Baron Capital is diversifying its portfolio, focusing on small-cap growth companies that are often overlooked by the market, especially in a declining interest rate environment [40][41]. - The firm is particularly interested in companies that are investing in their future growth, despite short-term profit pressures, as these present attractive investment opportunities [40][44]. Group 5: Specific Investment Cases - Two companies mentioned are Guidewire, which is transitioning clients to cloud-based solutions, and Idexx, which is expanding its pet diagnostic systems, both showing promising growth [42]. - Baron also discusses FactSet, which has a new CEO with a strong background, indicating potential for significant growth despite recent stock price declines [61][70].

"（美国）在财政与货币双宽松的格局下，货币宽松更值得期待。" "今年恒指上涨主要靠风险溢价回落，企业盈利（EPS）没有太多贡献，但明年EPS和无风险收益率受益于美国降息和中国名义GDP改善，中国牛市会继 续。" "当前AI浪潮遭遇的质疑很像1997年初互联网行情调整时的情况，数月调整之后又是数年上涨。AI行情目前在泡沫质疑中前行，2026年美国"放水"后，行 情会进一步聚焦能实现价值转换的领域。" "美元会进一步贬值，但幅度会收敛。人民币汇率明年有可能回到6字头，甚至升值到6.8，特别是下半年。2026年内外资会形成合力增持中国股市。" "明年行情节奏肯定没那么简单，不是无脑买入的大牛市，行情仍将充满波折。" "明年得真刀真枪找结构、挖机会，行情会像登山火炬一样时亮时灭、时强时弱，一定要提前布局新共识，别追高抱团旧共识。" "冬至（12月20日）一到，春天还会远吗？冬至前后行情或将利空出尽，现在'流泪撒种'，明年一定有丰收的收获。" "明年传统产业会比今年略好，但不是行业整体的贝塔机会，而是阿尔法机会。" "成长方向，科技行情依然明年中美产业共振的明确主线。AI应用（港股互联网）、端侧AI（关注消费电子）及游 ...